TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ondrej Kaderabek vs Tomas Liska 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1412811811119311
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:45 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kaderabek to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Ondrej Kaderabek @ 1.67 · Lost
How it is goingOndrej Kaderabek above · Tomas Liska below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 3-11
Point 98 set 5, 3-11 · our read held Ondrej Kaderabek at 56.6%
98 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kaderabek 17–13 Tomas Liska Tomas Liska has won 13 of their 30 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:4556.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Kaderabek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-13 in 30
Kaderabek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaderabek 1669 vs Liska 1624
Kaderabek
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaderabek 40% vs Liska 20%
Kaderabek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaderabek 40% vs Liska 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaderabek -1 · Liska -4
Liska
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Kaderabek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Liska form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaderabek 1.666 / Liska 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kaderabek)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245161
Kaderabek1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite58% won 42 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it67% 20 of 30
Liska2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 85 of 215
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKaderabek8wins
AwayLiska2wins
7 of 10 to a deciderKaderabek leads 8–2, and 7 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKaderabek100%5 of 5
AwayLiska40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaderabek5Liska5n = 10split evenly
S2Kaderabek6Liska4n = 10Kaderabek took 6 of 10
S3Kaderabek5Liska5n = 10split evenly
S4Kaderabek4Liska3n = 7Kaderabek took 4 of 7
S5Kaderabek6Liska1n = 7Kaderabek took 6 of 7
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home660%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKaderabekLiskaK − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.541.8+1.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaderabekLiskaBasisWin rate · lifetime201 / 392 vs 398 / 86251.3%46.2%201 / 392 vs 398 / 862Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KaderabekKaderabek 1.67/Liska 2.10
Miss
What we said
56.6%
Kaderabek · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Ondrej Kaderabek @ 1.67 · Lost
What happened
2–3
Liska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 17 · 09:45O. Kaderabek52712912123T. Liska5211101110102
WJun 15 · 05:15O. Kaderabek42411115113T. Liska4111781142
WJun 6 · 11:15O. Kaderabek46113912113T. Liska49811111092
LJun 3 · 08:48O. Kaderabek2129100T. Liska341111123
WJun 3 · 06:15O. Kaderabek531191111113T. Liska4791171372
WMay 9 · 09:03O. Kaderabek351311113T. Liska2711970
WMay 9 · 06:00O. Kaderabek331111113T. Liska195860
LApr 14 · 10:45O. Kaderabek49154111182T. Liska53171159113
WApr 13 · 15:00O. Kaderabek526111113113T. Liska52118131192
WApr 7 · 06:15O. Kaderabek521111811113T. Liska4448111382
O. Kaderabek10
WOct 5 · 10:15O. Kaderabek1.6741111113M. Makara2.10115781LOct 4 · 12:23M. Kocvara2.0011912113O. Kaderabek1.738111031WOct 4 · 11:15O. Kaderabek1.801011115113M. Kocvara1.9112441182LOct 4 · 10:15O. Kaderabek2.50410141192L. Heinzl1.501112125113WOct 4 · 09:15O. Kaderabek2.00121113113R. Pisa1.731431181LOct 2 · 08:23M. Vyskocil2.501111113O. Kaderabek1.509390LOct 2 · 07:15L. Adam2.00119117113O. Kaderabek1.7361171182LOct 2 · 06:45O. Kaderabek2.0011119972R. Pisa1.73991111113WOct 2 · 05:45O. Kaderabek1.5771714123M. Vyskocil2.25111512101WSep 21 · 08:18L. Svoboda2.2513711752O. Kaderabek1.571111611113
T. Liska10
LOct 4 · 20:19S. Rejent1.8311911113T. Liska1.83911771LOct 4 · 19:15T. Liska1.40111011882O. Mezera2.75512311113LOct 4 · 18:15T. Liska2.108660S. Rejent1.671111113LOct 4 · 17:15T. Liska2.2081191252L. Veigl1.611151110113WOct 2 · 16:15T. Liska1.581111133O. Mezera2.2547110LOct 2 · 15:45M. Makara1.831411113T. Liska1.8312870LOct 2 · 14:45O. Mezera2.501181110113T. Liska1.5081131272WOct 2 · 13:15M. Vyskocil1.509118121T. Liska2.5011911143WOct 1 · 08:43T. Liska1.7371111123M. Ullman2.001176101WOct 1 · 07:45T. Liska1.5791111113J. Senk2.25113821
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