TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jan Rochowanski vs Ladislav Dobias 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11511131214118119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:44 and never touched: 65.7% is still 65.7%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
65.7%
65.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Rochowanski above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 105 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Ladislav Dobias at 65.7%
105 points played in total.
H2H Jan Rochowanski 6–12 Ladislav Dobias Jan Rochowanski has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:4465.7%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 3.6pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Dobias
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-12 in 18
Dobias
Wrong
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rochowanski 1705 vs Dobias 1706
Dobias
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rochowanski 80% vs Dobias 60%
Rochowanski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rochowanski 60% vs Dobias 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rochowanski +4 · Dobias +1
Rochowanski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% · Clear lean (leans Dobias) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rochowanski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRochowanski 2.625 / Dobias 1.444
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Dobias)-3.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13250931
Rochowanski2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 24 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Dobias1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 201 of 355
Up 2–0, closes it96% 72 of 75
Up 1–0, closes it79% 143 of 181
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRochowanski2wins
AwayDobias8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRochowanski50%2 of 4
AwayDobias100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rochowanski4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S2Rochowanski4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S3Rochowanski1Dobias9n = 10Dobias took 9 of 10
S4Rochowanski0Dobias7n = 7Dobias took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricRochowanskiDobiasR − DBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.740.0−7.3per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRochowanskiDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 186 vs 445 / 80750%55.1%93 / 186 vs 445 / 807Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.641.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasRochowanski 2.63/Dobias 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Rochowanski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 14 · 05:45J. Rochowanski213990L. Dobias331111113
LJul 17 · 05:45J. Rochowanski27512731L. Dobias43111011113
WJul 16 · 11:45J. Rochowanski48119116113L. Dobias4671181192
LJul 13 · 09:15J. Rochowanski259880L. Dobias331111113
LJul 10 · 09:45J. Rochowanski32511791L. Dobias3711411113
WJun 25 · 10:00J. Rochowanski49111168133L. Dobias50981111112
LJun 23 · 06:15J. Rochowanski34712871L. Dobias43111011113
LApr 27 · 08:53J. Rochowanski2594120L. Dobias361111143
LApr 27 · 06:15J. Rochowanski31117941L. Dobias4181111113
LApr 15 · 09:13J. Rochowanski351176111L. Dobias3831111133
J. Rochowanski10
WOct 6 · 11:15M. Stibor1.801171171J. Rochowanski1.9113115113WOct 6 · 09:45J. Rochowanski3.00812411113P. Wasik1.36111011982WSep 30 · 08:48J. Rochowanski2.381111113M. Ullman1.539990WSep 30 · 07:45R. Pisa1.731477101J. Rochowanski2.00121111123WSep 30 · 06:45M. Vana2.2011119752J. Rochowanski1.61691111113LSep 30 · 05:15M. Ullman1.611111113J. Rochowanski2.209920WSep 29 · 12:19M. Myler1.7315670J. Rochowanski2.001711113LSep 29 · 11:15J. Rochowanski2.00711571M. Myler1.7311911113WSep 29 · 10:15J. Rochowanski2.0011511113M. Stibor1.73811841LSep 29 · 09:15J. Rochowanski1.8081151172L. Veigl1.91118119113
L. Dobias10
LOct 6 · 11:45P. Wasik1.8312116113L. Dobias1.831091151WOct 6 · 09:15M. Stibor2.259990L. Dobias1.571111113LOct 5 · 08:55V. Burylov1.8311815113L. Dobias1.838111381WOct 5 · 07:15P. Wasik1.8311811862L. Dobias1.83911911113WOct 5 · 06:45L. Dobias1.831111113V. Burylov1.838870LOct 5 · 05:45L. Dobias1.57129111062R. Pisa2.251011412113LOct 4 · 08:43A. Snr2.10811114123L. Dobias1.67114911102WOct 4 · 07:15L. Dobias1.67116119113M. Makara2.1081171182LOct 4 · 06:15L. Dobias1.5057120A. Snr2.501111143WOct 4 · 05:15L. Dobias1.80121311113L. Rulc1.911411691
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.