TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Senk vs Michal Makara 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
118114911611115
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:12 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMichal Makara to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Senk above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 87 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Michal Makara at 54.1%
87 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Senk 12–17 Michal Makara Jakub Senk has won 12 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:1254.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.8pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Makara
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
12-17 in 29
Makara
Wrong
gap of 5 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Senk 1615 vs Makara 1605
Senk
Correct
both rated, 9 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Senk 60% vs Makara 0%
Senk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Senk 40% vs Makara 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Senk +1 · Makara -6
Makara
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Makara) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSenk 2.00 / Makara 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Makara)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13270304
Senk2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 09)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 26 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back30% 11 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 24
Makara1.73
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 09)
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 53 of 93
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it72% 36 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSenk5wins
AwayMakara5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSenk40%2 of 5
AwayMakara40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Senk5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S2Senk3Makara7n = 10Makara took 7 of 10
S3Senk6Makara4n = 10Senk took 6 of 10
S4Senk4Makara6n = 10Makara took 6 of 10
S5Senk3Makara1n = 4Senk took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSenkMakaraS − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.341.3−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSenkMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime152 / 290 vs 506 / 105852.4%47.8%152 / 290 vs 506 / 1058Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
MakaraSenk 2.00/Makara 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Makara · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Senk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 9 · 08:19J. Senk49881111113M. Makara4711118892
WOct 9 · 06:45J. Senk4211812113M. Makara359111051
LAug 22 · 12:25J. Senk4811147792M. Makara549121111113
LAug 22 · 09:15J. Senk35791271M. Makara43111110113
LAug 15 · 14:45J. Senk34115991M. Makara3961111113
LJul 3 · 18:15J. Senk23116511M. Makara3961111113
WMay 23 · 12:00J. Senk48811126113M. Makara46119101152
WApr 28 · 13:45J. Senk49971111113M. Makara4111118922
WApr 7 · 09:45J. Senk43111110113M. Makara32591261
LJan 7 · 06:30J. Senk32891141M. Makara3711114113
J. Senk10
LOct 10 · 10:15J. Senk1.91171171192L. Svoboda1.80196117113WOct 9 · 08:19M. Makara1.7311118892J. Senk2.00881111113LOct 9 · 07:15J. Rochowanski1.671111123J. Senk2.1085100WOct 9 · 06:45J. Senk2.0011812113M. Makara1.739111051LOct 9 · 05:45J. Senk2.108850L. Rulc1.671111113WOct 6 · 16:59J. Senk2.631111133T. Liska1.4487110LOct 6 · 16:00S. Rejent1.731111133J. Senk2.0096110WOct 6 · 15:00P. Semrad2.007670J. Senk1.731111113LOct 6 · 13:30T. Liska1.5391311193J. Senk2.3811115171LOct 1 · 08:14J. Senk1.8311711822M. Vyskocil1.83911711113
M. Makara10
LOct 9 · 08:19M. Makara1.7311118892J. Senk2.00881111113LOct 9 · 07:45L. Rulc1.83111179113M. Makara1.8338111182LOct 9 · 06:45J. Senk2.0011812113M. Makara1.739111051LOct 9 · 05:15J. Rochowanski1.80121112113M. Makara1.911071461LOct 6 · 16:14M. Makara2.10912691V. Grubr1.67111011113LOct 6 · 15:15V. Grubr1.611111113M. Makara2.204750WOct 6 · 14:45M. Makara2.25125115113L. Veigl1.57101181182WOct 6 · 13:45M. Makara2.63149116113J. Krames Sr1.44121191192WOct 6 · 08:48T. Liska2.1012791292M. Makara1.6710111110113LOct 6 · 07:45M. Makara1.739780T. Liska2.001111113
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