TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Petr Semrad vs Jakub Senk 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711611711––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeJakub Senk to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Jakub Senk @ 1.61 · Won
How it is goingPetr Semrad above · Jakub Senk below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 53 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Jakub Senk at 54.9%
53 points played in total.
H2H Petr Semrad 5–12 Jakub Senk Petr Semrad has won 5 of their 17 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:5154.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Senk
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-12 in 17
Senk
Correct
gap of 7 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Semrad 1740 vs Senk 1591
Semrad
Wrong
both rated, 149 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Semrad 60% vs Senk 20%
Semrad
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Semrad 70% vs Senk 40%
Semrad
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Semrad +1 · Senk -4
Senk
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Senk) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Senk form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSemrad 2.00 / Senk 1.727
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Semrad)-4.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251380
Semrad2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 27 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 16
Senk1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 49 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it85% 17 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it73% 35 of 48
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSemrad4wins
AwaySenk6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSenk leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSemrad50%2 of 4
AwaySenk66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Semrad4Senk6n = 10Senk took 6 of 10
S2Semrad6Senk4n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S3Semrad5Senk5n = 10split evenly
S4Semrad1Senk6n = 7Senk took 6 of 7
S5Semrad3Senk1n = 4Semrad took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSemradSenkSemrad − SenkBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.543.4−0.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSemradSenkBasisWin rate · lifetime277 / 539 vs 152 / 28751.4%53%277 / 539 vs 152 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SenkSemrad 2.00/Senk 1.73
Hit
What we said
54.9%
Senk · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Jakub Senk @ 1.61 · Won
What happened
0–3
Senk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 5 · 15:15P. Semrad529111110113J. Senk4811791292
LJun 12 · 14:15P. Semrad36117991J. Senk4291111113
WMay 30 · 15:45P. Semrad52119117143J. Senk51911811122
WMay 4 · 18:15P. Semrad48712126113J. Senk501110101182
LOct 11 · 12:24P. Semrad35117981J. Senk4071111113
LOct 11 · 09:30P. Semrad297111101J. Senk3511111123
WSep 27 · 13:10P. Semrad351211123J. Senk29109100
LSep 27 · 09:30P. Semrad538101111132J. Senk52111286153
P. Semrad10
LOct 6 · 15:30T. Liska1.5711116113P. Semrad2.25481141WOct 6 · 14:00P. Semrad2.501111113S. Rejent1.506790LSep 23 · 16:58D. Marasek2.201211113P. Semrad1.6110750WSep 23 · 15:30P. Semrad1.7331111113L. Provaznik2.00119581LSep 23 · 14:30P. Semrad1.57711125112D. Marasek2.251171011133WSep 23 · 13:30P. Semrad1.6781112113M. Hajek2.101141071WSep 18 · 16:20P. Semrad1.67711611113D. Marasek2.1011511832WSep 18 · 15:15D. Marasek2.25731171P. Semrad1.5711118113WSep 18 · 14:45P. Semrad1.611111113L. Kolman2.204860LSep 18 · 13:45P. Semrad1.6711117982M. Hajek2.10971111113
J. Senk10
LOct 6 · 16:00S. Rejent1.731111133J. Senk2.0096110LOct 6 · 13:30T. Liska1.5391311193J. Senk2.3811115171LOct 1 · 08:14J. Senk1.8311711822M. Vyskocil1.83911711113LOct 1 · 07:45T. Liska1.5791111113J. Senk2.25113821LOct 1 · 06:45M. Ullman1.80111358113J. Senk1.91611111152WOct 1 · 05:15M. Vyskocil1.8399111132J. Senk1.83111148113WSep 22 · 16:49M. Myler1.73911119132J. Senk2.00119911153LSep 22 · 15:45J. Senk1.6795150M. Myler2.101111152LSep 22 · 14:15L. Veigl1.571011611173J. Senk2.25122115152WSep 22 · 13:45O. Mezera2.001011991J. Senk1.7312911113
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