TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Dominik Marasek vs Petr Semrad 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Sep 23Finished
Dominik Marasek
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210117115––––
Petr Semrad
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
How it is goingDominik Marasek above · Petr Semrad below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 56 set 3, 11-5
56 points played in total.
H2H Dominik Marasek 9–16 Petr Semrad Dominik Marasek has won 9 of their 25 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Marasek beat Semrad 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Semrad)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Semrad form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarasek 2.20 / Semrad 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Semrad)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13184935
Marasek2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 28 of 68
Down 0–1, comes back32% 11 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back7% 1 of 15
Semrad1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 91 of 157
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it69% 61 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarasek4wins
AwaySemrad6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSemrad leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarasek25%1 of 4
AwaySemrad50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marasek4Semrad6n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S2Marasek4Semrad6n = 10Semrad took 6 of 10
S3Marasek6Semrad4n = 10Marasek took 6 of 10
S4Marasek3Semrad7n = 10Semrad took 7 of 10
S5Marasek3Semrad2n = 5Marasek took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarasekSemradM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.745.6−2.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarasekSemradBasisWin rate · lifetime124 / 241 vs 276 / 53751.5%51.4%124 / 241 vs 276 / 537Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SemradMarasek 2.20/Semrad 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.3%
Semrad · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Marasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 23 · 14:30D. Marasek521171011133P. Semrad46711125112
LSep 18 · 16:20D. Marasek3811511832P. Semrad46711611113
LSep 18 · 15:15D. Marasek28731171P. Semrad4111118113
WSep 15 · 14:45D. Marasek541112911113P. Semrad47131011672
LSep 7 · 14:00D. Marasek4211713292P. Semrad528111111113
WSep 3 · 17:03D. Marasek47141111113P. Semrad39165991
LSep 3 · 16:00D. Marasek29561171P. Semrad3911116113
WSep 1 · 13:45D. Marasek6510151811113P. Semrad581213161342
LAug 21 · 14:15D. Marasek31127661P. Semrad43101111113
LAug 18 · 16:48D. Marasek419119121P. Semrad4511911143
D. Marasek10
WSep 23 · 16:00D. Marasek1.731411113M. Hajek2.0012490WSep 23 · 14:30P. Semrad1.57711125112D. Marasek2.251171011133WSep 23 · 14:00L. Provaznik2.251414100D. Marasek1.571616123LSep 18 · 16:20P. Semrad1.67711611113D. Marasek2.1011511832LSep 18 · 15:15D. Marasek2.25731171P. Semrad1.5711118113WSep 18 · 14:15D. Marasek1.731111109113M. Hajek2.0076121172WSep 18 · 13:15D. Marasek1.4013118113L. Kolman2.751181161WSep 15 · 16:49D. Marasek1.831211113M. Hajek1.8310790LSep 15 · 15:45M. Hajek1.831117113D. Marasek1.8391570WSep 15 · 14:45P. Semrad1.57131011672D. Marasek2.251112911113
P. Semrad10
WSep 23 · 15:30P. Semrad1.7331111113L. Provaznik2.00119581LSep 23 · 14:30P. Semrad1.57711125112D. Marasek2.251171011133WSep 23 · 13:30P. Semrad1.6781112113M. Hajek2.101141071WSep 18 · 16:20P. Semrad1.67711611113D. Marasek2.1011511832WSep 18 · 15:15D. Marasek2.25731171P. Semrad1.5711118113WSep 18 · 14:45P. Semrad1.611111113L. Kolman2.204860LSep 18 · 13:45P. Semrad1.6711117982M. Hajek2.10971111113WSep 15 · 16:19P. Semrad1.731111113Z. Vasatko2.006990WSep 15 · 15:15Z. Vasatko2.20117571P. Semrad1.6141111113LSep 15 · 14:45P. Semrad1.57131011672D. Marasek2.251112911113
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