TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Jakub Senk vs Lukas Rulc 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 9Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811511––––
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:43 and never touched: 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Senk above · Lukas Rulc below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 54 set 3, 5-11 · our read held Lukas Rulc at 56.6%
54 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Senk 8–9 Lukas Rulc Jakub Senk has won 8 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:4356.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rulc
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-9 in 17
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Senk 1613 vs Rulc 1635
Rulc
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Senk 40% vs Rulc 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Senk 40% vs Rulc 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Senk +1 · Rulc +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Rulc) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rulc form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSenk 2.10 / Rulc 1.666
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Rulc)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13266222
Senk2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 06)
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog39% won 24 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back29% 10 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 21
Rulc1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 05)
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite54% won 88 of 162
Up 2–0, closes it89% 41 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it67% 64 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSenk6wins
AwayRulc4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSenk leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSenkn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRulc37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Senk2Rulc8n = 10Rulc took 8 of 10
S2Senk6Rulc4n = 10Senk took 6 of 10
S3Senk7Rulc3n = 10Senk took 7 of 10
S4Senk4Rulc3n = 7Senk took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSenkRulcS − RBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.033.9+0.1per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSenkRulcBasisWin rate · lifetime154 / 290 vs 348 / 69953.1%49.8%154 / 290 vs 348 / 699Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RulcSenk 2.10/Rulc 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.6%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rulc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 15 · 07:00J. Senk28512651L. Rulc43111011113
WAug 22 · 10:15J. Senk381111163L. Rulc2749140
LJul 4 · 16:54J. Senk1941050L. Rulc341112113
WJul 4 · 13:45J. Senk44651111113L. Rulc4011116842
WMar 10 · 07:45J. Senk3961111113L. Rulc26113931
WJan 24 · 07:15J. Senk3841112113L. Rulc301141051
WJan 10 · 13:55J. Senk4071111113L. Rulc36119971
LDec 30 · 17:00J. Senk2681170L. Rulc351113113
J. Senk10
WOct 6 · 16:59J. Senk2.631111133T. Liska1.4487110LOct 6 · 16:00S. Rejent1.731111133J. Senk2.0096110WOct 6 · 15:00P. Semrad2.007670J. Senk1.731111113LOct 6 · 13:30T. Liska1.5391311193J. Senk2.3811115171LOct 1 · 08:14J. Senk1.8311711822M. Vyskocil1.83911711113LOct 1 · 07:45T. Liska1.5791111113J. Senk2.25113821LOct 1 · 06:45M. Ullman1.80111358113J. Senk1.91611111152WOct 1 · 05:15M. Vyskocil1.8399111132J. Senk1.83111148113WSep 22 · 16:49M. Myler1.73911119132J. Senk2.00119911153LSep 22 · 15:45J. Senk1.6795150M. Myler2.101111152
L. Rulc10
LOct 9 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.73511511113L. Rulc2.0011711892WOct 5 · 12:13M. Makara2.0091080L. Rulc1.731112113LOct 5 · 11:15O. Kaderabek1.7311117113L. Rulc2.00741141LOct 5 · 10:45L. Rulc1.61117111182T. Liska2.20911913113LOct 5 · 09:45L. Rulc1.9111221182M. Makara1.80311117113WOct 4 · 08:14L. Rulc1.831111113M. Makara1.836980LOct 4 · 07:45A. Snr2.0071111113L. Rulc1.73115661LOct 4 · 06:45M. Makara1.915111111123L. Rulc1.80117139102LOct 4 · 05:15L. Dobias1.80121311113L. Rulc1.911411691LOct 3 · 20:54L. Dobias1.8091112113L. Rulc1.911131081
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