TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Burylov vs David Gasparovic 1-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1159119111113––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:52 and never touched: 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Gasparovic to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingVolodymyr Burylov above · David Gasparovic below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Point 80 set 4, 11-13 · our read held David Gasparovic at 54.3%
80 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Burylov 9–7 David Gasparovic David Gasparovic has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:5254.3%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.3pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gasparovic
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-7 in 16
Burylov
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Burylov 1721 vs Gasparovic 1803
Gasparovic
Correct
both rated, 82 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Burylov 20% vs Gasparovic 100%
Gasparovic
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Burylov 40% vs Gasparovic 70%
Gasparovic
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Burylov -1 · Gasparovic +5
Gasparovic
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Gasparovic) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gasparovic form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBurylov 1.909 / Gasparovic 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Gasparovic)-1.3pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13276474
Burylov1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog55% won 55 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back35% 16 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back22% 5 of 23
Gasparovic1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite60% won 59 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it89% 23 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it76% 41 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBurylov6wins
AwayGasparovic4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBurylov leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBurylov60%3 of 5
AwayGasparovic40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Burylov5Gasparovic5n = 10split evenly
S2Burylov5Gasparovic5n = 10split evenly
S3Burylov6Gasparovic4n = 10Burylov took 6 of 10
S4Burylov4Gasparovic4n = 8split evenly
S5Burylov3Gasparovic1n = 4Burylov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricBurylovGasparovicB − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.442.8−0.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBurylovGasparovicBasisWin rate · lifetime220 / 452 vs 123 / 20548.7%60%220 / 452 vs 123 / 205Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.640.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
GasparovicBurylov 1.91/Gasparovic 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.3%
Gasparovic · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gasparovic won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 17:15V. Burylov30118471D. Gasparovic4291111113
WOct 4 · 13:15V. Burylov46111212113D. Gasparovic4213101091
WSep 6 · 17:00V. Burylov331111113D. Gasparovic228860
WSep 6 · 14:45V. Burylov5611111011133D. Gasparovic50136128112
LSep 4 · 18:45V. Burylov396912121D. Gasparovic46111110143
LAug 29 · 10:15V. Burylov4811991182D. Gasparovic50911118113
WAug 23 · 13:45V. Burylov48871111113D. Gasparovic4211114882
WAug 22 · 13:15V. Burylov341211113D. Gasparovic2710980
LJul 19 · 13:09V. Burylov374141541D. Gasparovic51111217113
WJul 19 · 10:30V. Burylov53115128173D. Gasparovic569111011152
V. Burylov10
LOct 11 · 11:30J. Chalupa1.801012116133V. Burylov1.911210511112LOct 11 · 10:00V. Burylov1.831061111122J. Krames Sr1.83121197143WOct 7 · 08:23V. Burylov1.912111113J. Rochowanski1.8019690LOct 7 · 07:45V. Burylov1.911112910112M. Kocvara1.808101112133LOct 7 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.80131148143V. Burylov1.911191111122LOct 7 · 05:45L. Dobias1.831311113V. Burylov1.8311880WOct 6 · 20:19J. Chalupa1.807950V. Burylov1.911111113LOct 6 · 19:15V. Burylov1.83116111072M. Zelinka1.83411912113WOct 6 · 18:15V. Burylov2.0011711123J. Chalupa1.737118101LOct 6 · 17:15V. Burylov1.91118471D. Gasparovic1.8091111113
D. Gasparovic10
WOct 11 · 09:30J. Chalupa2.204111171D. Gasparovic1.6111133113WOct 10 · 16:50M. Kocvara2.63851131D. Gasparovic1.441111853WOct 10 · 15:15P. Wasik2.00911581D. Gasparovic1.731161193WOct 10 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.831111113M. Kocvara1.837990WOct 10 · 13:45D. Gasparovic1.611111793J. Krames Sr2.20521161LOct 9 · 20:24D. Gasparovic1.2089111162J. Dolezal4.33111141113WOct 9 · 19:15J. Dolezal3.50116281D. Gasparovic1.2881111113LOct 9 · 17:45D. Gasparovic1.8061180L. Heinzl1.911113113LOct 6 · 20:48D. Gasparovic1.8311101261M. Zelinka1.8391214113WOct 6 · 17:15V. Burylov1.91118471D. Gasparovic1.8091111113
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