TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Burylov vs Martin Kocvara 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
118121091110121113
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:09 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Kocvara to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Martin Kocvara @ 1.80 · Won
How it is goingVolodymyr Burylov above · Martin Kocvara below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 107 set 5, 11-13 · our read held Martin Kocvara at 54.0%
107 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Burylov 3–6 Martin Kocvara Volodymyr Burylov has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 06:0954.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Kocvara
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Kocvara
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Burylov 1702 vs Kocvara 1767
Kocvara
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Burylov 40% vs Kocvara 60%
Kocvara
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Burylov 50% vs Kocvara 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Burylov -2 · Kocvara -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Kocvara) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burylov form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBurylov 1.909 / Kocvara 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kocvara)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13255855
Burylov1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog56% won 54 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back36% 16 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back23% 5 of 22
Kocvara1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 33 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it81% 29 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeBurylov3wins
AwayKocvara6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderKocvara leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBurylov60%3 of 5
AwayKocvara100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Burylov5Kocvara4n = 9Burylov took 5 of 9
S2Burylov3Kocvara6n = 9Kocvara took 6 of 9
S3Burylov4Kocvara5n = 9Kocvara took 5 of 9
S4Burylov2Kocvara5n = 7Kocvara took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away444%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricBurylovKocvaraB − KBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match38.438.8−0.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBurylovKocvaraBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 451 vs 104 / 17849%58.4%221 / 451 vs 104 / 178Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KocvaraBurylov 1.91/Kocvara 1.80
Hit
What we said
54%
Kocvara · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Martin Kocvara @ 1.80 · Won
What happened
2–3
Kocvara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 3 · 20:23V. Burylov321313241M. Kocvara48151111113
WOct 3 · 18:15V. Burylov331111113M. Kocvara126240
LSep 20 · 07:45V. Burylov331181041M. Kocvara4391112113
LSep 4 · 11:30V. Burylov37991181M. Kocvara3611113113
WSep 1 · 05:15V. Burylov471141011113M. Kocvara4691112952
LAug 30 · 18:15V. Burylov501111117102M. Kocvara49136711123
WJul 28 · 07:45V. Burylov4614912113M. Kocvara3512111021
LJul 26 · 11:15V. Burylov2349100M. Kocvara341111123
LJul 25 · 11:15V. Burylov45111014101M. Kocvara4661216123
V. Burylov10
WOct 7 · 08:23V. Burylov1.912111113J. Rochowanski1.8019690LOct 7 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.80131148143V. Burylov1.911191111122LOct 7 · 05:45L. Dobias1.831311113V. Burylov1.8311880WOct 6 · 20:19J. Chalupa1.807950V. Burylov1.911111113LOct 6 · 19:15V. Burylov1.83116111072M. Zelinka1.83411912113WOct 6 · 18:15V. Burylov2.0011711123J. Chalupa1.737118101LOct 6 · 17:15V. Burylov1.91118471D. Gasparovic1.8091111113WOct 5 · 08:55V. Burylov1.8311815113L. Dobias1.838111381WOct 5 · 07:45R. Pisa2.0011115792V. Burylov1.73921111113LOct 5 · 06:45L. Dobias1.831111113V. Burylov1.838870
M. Kocvara10
WOct 7 · 08:53M. Kocvara2.256111111113L. Dobias1.5711513382LOct 7 · 06:45L. Dobias1.44111110123M. Kocvara2.637612101WOct 7 · 05:15J. Rochowanski2.3811118562M. Kocvara1.53951111113WOct 4 · 12:23M. Kocvara2.0011912113O. Kaderabek1.738111031LOct 4 · 11:15O. Kaderabek1.801011115113M. Kocvara1.9112441182WOct 4 · 10:45M. Kocvara1.9191114113R. Pisa1.801151261WOct 4 · 09:45M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Heinzl1.448780WOct 3 · 20:23V. Burylov1.731313241M. Kocvara2.00151111113LOct 3 · 19:15M. Kocvara2.2036111162L. Rulc1.61111196113LOct 3 · 18:15M. Kocvara1.806240V. Burylov1.911111113
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