TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Ladislav Dobias vs Martin Kocvara 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11711610121210––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:44 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Dobias above · Martin Kocvara below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 79 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Ladislav Dobias at 60.1%
79 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Dobias 8–6 Martin Kocvara Martin Kocvara has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:4460.1%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444
short by 9.2pp69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-6 in 14
Dobias
Correct
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dobias 1716 vs Kocvara 1767
Kocvara
Wrong
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dobias 40% vs Kocvara 80%
Kocvara
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dobias 40% vs Kocvara 60%
Kocvara
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dobias +1 · Kocvara +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Dobias) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kocvara form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDobias 1.444 / Kocvara 2.625
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Dobias)-9.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13255736
Dobias1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 202 of 358
Up 2–0, closes it96% 73 of 76
Up 1–0, closes it79% 144 of 182
Kocvara2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog56% won 59 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back45% 24 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back20% 5 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDobias6wins
AwayKocvara4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDobias75%6 of 8
AwayKocvaran = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dobias8Kocvara2n = 10Dobias took 8 of 10
S2Dobias4Kocvara6n = 10Kocvara took 6 of 10
S3Dobias3Kocvara7n = 10Kocvara took 7 of 10
S4Dobias7Kocvara3n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S5Dobias2Kocvara2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDobiasKocvaraD − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.040.8+2.2per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDobiasKocvaraBasisWin rate · lifetime448 / 813 vs 104 / 17855.1%58.4%448 / 813 vs 104 / 178Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match41.239.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasDobias 1.44/Kocvara 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 06:45L. Dobias44111110123M. Kocvara357612101
LOct 3 · 17:15L. Dobias4111111091M. Kocvara4513912113
WAug 26 · 10:45L. Dobias48119611113M. Kocvara4231111982
WAug 18 · 12:55L. Dobias47111111143M. Kocvara377135121
LAug 18 · 10:15L. Dobias371156151M. Kocvara4451111173
WAug 12 · 05:15L. Dobias4211119113M. Kocvara29571161
WAug 11 · 20:48L. Dobias44111111113M. Kocvara34613781
LAug 11 · 19:45L. Dobias4112711562M. Kocvara511011811113
WJul 28 · 08:49L. Dobias47117711113M. Kocvara4371111772
LJul 28 · 05:15L. Dobias39511211102M. Kocvara48118116123
L. Dobias10
WOct 7 · 07:15J. Rochowanski2.3811113582L. Dobias1.53691111113WOct 7 · 05:45L. Dobias1.831311113V. Burylov1.8311880LOct 6 · 12:13L. Dobias1.53991181M. Stibor2.3811114113LOct 6 · 11:45P. Wasik1.8312116113L. Dobias1.831091151LOct 6 · 10:45J. Rochowanski2.6311111211113L. Dobias1.4451314892WOct 6 · 09:15M. Stibor2.259990L. Dobias1.571111113LOct 5 · 08:55V. Burylov1.8311815113L. Dobias1.838111381WOct 5 · 07:15P. Wasik1.8311811862L. Dobias1.83911911113WOct 5 · 06:45L. Dobias1.831111113V. Burylov1.838870LOct 5 · 05:45L. Dobias1.57129111062R. Pisa2.251011412113
M. Kocvara10
WOct 7 · 05:15J. Rochowanski2.3811118562M. Kocvara1.53951111113WOct 4 · 12:23M. Kocvara2.0011912113O. Kaderabek1.738111031LOct 4 · 11:15O. Kaderabek1.801011115113M. Kocvara1.9112441182WOct 4 · 10:45M. Kocvara1.9191114113R. Pisa1.801151261WOct 4 · 09:45M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Heinzl1.448780WOct 3 · 20:23V. Burylov1.731313241M. Kocvara2.00151111113LOct 3 · 19:15M. Kocvara2.2036111162L. Rulc1.61111196113LOct 3 · 18:15M. Kocvara1.806240V. Burylov1.911111113WOct 3 · 17:15M. Kocvara2.3813912113L. Dobias1.5311111091LSep 29 · 16:18J. Krames Sr1.401311113M. Kocvara2.7511550
Upcoming Matches
L. Dobias
M. Kocvara
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.