TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Radovan Pisa vs Volodymyr Burylov 2-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119112511711911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:43 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Burylov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadovan Pisa above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 87 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Volodymyr Burylov at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Pisa 9–11 Volodymyr Burylov Radovan Pisa has won 9 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:4354.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Burylov
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-11 in 20
Burylov
Correct
gap of 2 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pisa 1674 vs Burylov 1710
Burylov
Correct
both rated, 35 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pisa 40% vs Burylov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pisa 40% vs Burylov 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pisa -1 · Burylov -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Burylov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burylov form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPisa 2.00 / Burylov 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Burylov)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13245322
Pisa2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog48% won 86 of 181
Down 0–1, comes back29% 28 of 97
Down 0–2, comes back13% 7 of 55
Burylov1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite41% won 45 of 111
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it61% 33 of 54
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePisa4wins
AwayBurylov6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderBurylov leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePisa66.7%4 of 6
AwayBurylov100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pisa6Burylov4n = 10Pisa took 6 of 10
S2Pisa7Burylov3n = 10Pisa took 7 of 10
S3Pisa4Burylov6n = 10Burylov took 6 of 10
S4Pisa2Burylov6n = 8Burylov took 6 of 8
S5Pisa2Burylov3n = 5Burylov took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPisaBurylovP − BBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.041.8+0.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPisaBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime381 / 791 vs 223 / 45048.2%49.6%381 / 791 vs 223 / 450Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.639.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BurylovPisa 2.00/Burylov 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Burylov · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Burylov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LOct 5 · 07:45R. Pisa4311115792V. Burylov44921111113
WOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa48111169113V. Burylov4274111192
WSep 30 · 19:45R. Pisa491111106113V. Burylov4897121192
LAug 31 · 05:15R. Pisa3531110111V. Burylov4411812133
LAug 30 · 05:45R. Pisa4341111982V. Burylov41114411113
WAug 29 · 11:45R. Pisa4011117113V. Burylov37891191
LJul 26 · 09:15R. Pisa4698111172V. Burylov47111177113
WJul 25 · 12:23R. Pisa351311113V. Burylov2911990
LJul 25 · 09:45R. Pisa391177141V. Burylov4461111163
R. Pisa10
LOct 5 · 08:23R. Pisa3.75119841P. Wasik1.2591111113LOct 5 · 06:15P. Wasik1.401111113R. Pisa2.753950WOct 5 · 05:45L. Dobias1.57129111062R. Pisa2.251011412113LOct 4 · 12:55R. Pisa2.109450L. Heinzl1.671111113WOct 4 · 11:45L. Heinzl1.73510111192R. Pisa2.00111277113LOct 4 · 10:45M. Kocvara1.9191114113R. Pisa1.801151261LOct 4 · 09:15O. Kaderabek2.00121113113R. Pisa1.731431181LOct 3 · 12:44V. Burylov1.731111923R. Pisa2.00641101LOct 3 · 11:15R. Pisa2.259101171L. Dobias1.5711127113WOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa2.00111169113V. Burylov1.7374111192
V. Burylov10
LOct 5 · 06:45L. Dobias1.831111113V. Burylov1.838870WOct 5 · 05:15P. Wasik1.501151031V. Burylov2.5061112113WOct 4 · 16:14V. Burylov2.101111107113M. Zelinka1.6768121142LOct 4 · 15:45M. Makara1.8311512113V. Burylov1.839111071LOct 4 · 14:45M. Zelinka1.9111119123V. Burylov1.806711101WOct 4 · 13:15D. Gasparovic1.8313101091V. Burylov1.83111212113LOct 3 · 20:23V. Burylov1.731313241M. Kocvara2.00151111113LOct 3 · 19:45V. Burylov1.8311891292L. Dobias1.838111110113WOct 3 · 12:44V. Burylov1.731111923R. Pisa2.00641101LOct 3 · 10:15R. Pisa2.00111169113V. Burylov1.7374111192
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