TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Volodymyr Burylov vs Josef Chalupa 3-1 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1177111181210––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:06 and never touched: 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeJosef Chalupa to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVolodymyr Burylov above · Josef Chalupa below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 77 set 4, 12-10 · our read held Josef Chalupa at 54.9%
77 points played in total.
H2H Volodymyr Burylov 16–16 Josef Chalupa Dead even across their 32 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:0654.9%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.0pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-16 in 32
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Burylov 1710 vs Chalupa 1768
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Burylov 60% vs Chalupa 20%
Burylov
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Burylov 50% vs Chalupa 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Burylov -1 · Chalupa -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Chalupa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBurylov 2.00 / Chalupa 1.727
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Chalupa)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13251415
Burylov2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog55% won 52 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back36% 16 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back23% 5 of 22
Chalupa1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 27) · back after a break
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 42 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it73% 29 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBurylov4wins
AwayChalupa6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBurylov50%2 of 4
AwayChalupa66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Burylov4Chalupa6n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Burylov5Chalupa5n = 10split evenly
S3Burylov4Chalupa6n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S4Burylov1Chalupa6n = 7Chalupa took 6 of 7
S5Burylov3Chalupa1n = 4Burylov took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBurylovChalupaB − CBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.140.0−2.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBurylovChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime221 / 448 vs 198 / 36449.3%54.4%221 / 448 vs 198 / 364Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.640.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaBurylov 2.00/Chalupa 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Burylov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 22 · 18:45V. Burylov198380J. Chalupa331111113
WSep 6 · 15:45V. Burylov51812911113J. Chalupa50111011992
LJul 18 · 09:05V. Burylov27512100J. Chalupa371114123
LJul 18 · 06:45V. Burylov30115861J. Chalupa3851111113
WJul 11 · 10:45V. Burylov341211113J. Chalupa2210840
WFeb 17 · 09:31V. Burylov49111188113J. Chalupa3774111142
LFeb 17 · 08:30V. Burylov381711371J. Chalupa4919811113
LFeb 10 · 17:50V. Burylov3910101181J. Chalupa4412129113
WFeb 10 · 14:15V. Burylov40311114113J. Chalupa3911471162
LFeb 2 · 18:15V. Burylov4412911572J. Chalupa511011811113
V. Burylov10
LOct 6 · 17:15V. Burylov1.91118471D. Gasparovic1.8091111113WOct 5 · 08:55V. Burylov1.8311815113L. Dobias1.838111381WOct 5 · 07:45R. Pisa2.0011115792V. Burylov1.73921111113LOct 5 · 06:45L. Dobias1.831111113V. Burylov1.838870WOct 5 · 05:15P. Wasik1.501151031V. Burylov2.5061112113WOct 4 · 16:14V. Burylov2.101111107113M. Zelinka1.6768121142LOct 4 · 15:45M. Makara1.8311512113V. Burylov1.839111071LOct 4 · 14:45M. Zelinka1.9111119123V. Burylov1.806711101WOct 4 · 13:15D. Gasparovic1.8313101091V. Burylov1.83111212113LOct 3 · 20:23V. Burylov1.731313241M. Kocvara2.00151111113
J. Chalupa10
LOct 6 · 17:45M. Zelinka1.9191111113J. Chalupa1.80117781LSep 27 · 16:20J. Chalupa1.67116791D. Gasparovic2.1091111113LSep 27 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.8386130L. Heinzl1.831111153WSep 27 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.9154111172J. Chalupa1.8011116993LSep 27 · 13:45J. Krames Sr1.91811136113J. Chalupa1.80114111152LSep 26 · 20:20J. Chalupa2.20881191J. Krames Sr1.6111118113WSep 26 · 19:15J. Krames Sr1.8311751362J. Chalupa1.837111111113LSep 26 · 18:45J. Chalupa1.8311117992L. Dobias1.83881111113WSep 26 · 17:45J. Chalupa1.401111113M. Makara2.751880WSep 22 · 20:24J. Chalupa1.5391211123V. Grubr2.3811106101
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