TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Josef Chalupa vs David Gasparovic 0-3 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
711311711––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Chalupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Chalupa above · David Gasparovic below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 50 set 3, 7-11 · our read held Josef Chalupa at 54.0%
50 points played in total.
H2H Josef Chalupa 5–2 David Gasparovic David Gasparovic has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:3854.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Gasparovic
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Chalupa
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1742 vs Gasparovic 1769
Gasparovic
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 20% vs Gasparovic 80%
Gasparovic
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 30% vs Gasparovic 60%
Gasparovic
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa -4 · Gasparovic +2
Chalupa
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Chalupa) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gasparovic form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.833 / Gasparovic 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chalupa)-0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13251422
Chalupa1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Gasparovic1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeChalupa5wins
AwayGasparovic2wins
3 of 7 to a deciderChalupa leads 5–2, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa60%3 of 5
AwayGasparovicn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa5Gasparovic2n = 7Chalupa took 5 of 7
S2Chalupa4Gasparovic3n = 7Chalupa took 4 of 7
S3Chalupa1Gasparovic6n = 7Gasparovic took 6 of 7
S4Chalupa4Gasparovic3n = 7Chalupa took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home343%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricChalupaGasparovicC − GBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match40.240.5−0.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaGasparovicBasisWin rate · lifetime188 / 350 vs 116 / 19553.7%59.5%188 / 350 vs 116 / 195Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.83/Gasparovic 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Gasparovic won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 27 · 16:20J. Chalupa33116791D. Gasparovic4291111113
WSep 13 · 05:45J. Chalupa44611511113D. Gasparovic4411611882
LSep 6 · 13:45J. Chalupa33116791D. Gasparovic4181111113
WSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa48121211133D. Gasparovic44101013111
WSep 5 · 06:45J. Chalupa4011711113D. Gasparovic27911521
WMay 29 · 19:30J. Chalupa43511511113D. Gasparovic4511911682
J. Chalupa10
LOct 6 · 18:15V. Burylov2.0011711123J. Chalupa1.737118101LOct 6 · 17:45M. Zelinka1.9191111113J. Chalupa1.80117781LSep 27 · 16:20J. Chalupa1.67116791D. Gasparovic2.1091111113LSep 27 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.8386130L. Heinzl1.831111153WSep 27 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.9154111172J. Chalupa1.8011116993LSep 27 · 13:45J. Krames Sr1.91811136113J. Chalupa1.80114111152LSep 26 · 20:20J. Chalupa2.20881191J. Krames Sr1.6111118113WSep 26 · 19:15J. Krames Sr1.8311751362J. Chalupa1.837111111113LSep 26 · 18:45J. Chalupa1.8311117992L. Dobias1.83881111113WSep 26 · 17:45J. Chalupa1.401111113M. Makara2.751880
D. Gasparovic10
WOct 6 · 18:45M. Zelinka2.0041112882D. Gasparovic1.731161011113WOct 6 · 17:15V. Burylov1.91118471D. Gasparovic1.8091111113LOct 4 · 16:44M. Makara2.751171110113D. Gasparovic1.4071191282WOct 4 · 15:15D. Gasparovic1.83711115113M. Zelinka1.8311861152WOct 4 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.44141311113M. Makara2.631215471LOct 4 · 13:15D. Gasparovic1.8313101091V. Burylov1.83111212113LSep 28 · 12:50M. Zelinka1.8311126153D. Gasparovic1.8351011131WSep 28 · 11:15D. Gasparovic1.30591111113L. Veigl3.4011119992WSep 27 · 16:20J. Chalupa1.67116791D. Gasparovic2.1091111113LSep 27 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.9154111172J. Chalupa1.8011116993
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