TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Josef Chalupa vs Volodymyr Burylov 3-2 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
101212101156111311
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:25 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVolodymyr Burylov to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Chalupa above · Volodymyr Burylov below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 101 set 5, 13-11 · our read held Volodymyr Burylov at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Josef Chalupa 16–18 Volodymyr Burylov Josef Chalupa has won 16 of their 34 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2554.0%Our read52.4%to break even at 1.909
clears by 1.6pp52.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.909 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
16-18 in 34
Burylov
Wrong
gap of 2 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1718 vs Burylov 1712
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 20% vs Burylov 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 20% vs Burylov 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +1 · Burylov -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Burylov) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Burylov form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.80 / Burylov 1.909
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Burylov)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13276546
Chalupa1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 41 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it70% 28 of 40
Burylov1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog55% won 55 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back35% 16 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back22% 5 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa5wins
AwayBurylov5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa80%4 of 5
AwayBurylov80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa5Burylov5n = 10split evenly
S2Chalupa5Burylov5n = 10split evenly
S3Chalupa6Burylov4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S4Chalupa4Burylov2n = 6Chalupa took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaBurylovC − BBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.736.1+0.6per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime187 / 346 vs 220 / 45354.1%48.6%187 / 346 vs 220 / 453Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BurylovChalupa 1.80/Burylov 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Burylov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 20:19J. Chalupa217950V. Burylov331111113
LOct 6 · 18:15J. Chalupa367118101V. Burylov4111711123
WSep 22 · 18:45J. Chalupa331111113V. Burylov198380
LSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa50111011992V. Burylov51812911113
WJul 18 · 09:05J. Chalupa371114123V. Burylov27512100
WJul 18 · 06:45J. Chalupa3851111113V. Burylov30115861
LJul 11 · 10:45J. Chalupa2210840V. Burylov341211113
LFeb 17 · 09:31J. Chalupa3774111142V. Burylov49111188113
WFeb 17 · 08:30J. Chalupa4919811113V. Burylov381711371
WFeb 10 · 17:50J. Chalupa4412129113V. Burylov3910101181
J. Chalupa10
WOct 11 · 10:30J. Chalupa1.831151111113J. Krames Sr1.8341113692LOct 11 · 09:30J. Chalupa2.204111171D. Gasparovic1.6111133113LOct 6 · 20:19J. Chalupa1.807950V. Burylov1.911111113LOct 6 · 19:45J. Chalupa1.837370D. Gasparovic1.831111113LOct 6 · 18:15V. Burylov2.0011711123J. Chalupa1.737118101LOct 6 · 17:45M. Zelinka1.9191111113J. Chalupa1.80117781LSep 27 · 16:20J. Chalupa1.67116791D. Gasparovic2.1091111113LSep 27 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.8386130L. Heinzl1.831111153WSep 27 · 14:15D. Gasparovic1.9154111172J. Chalupa1.8011116993LSep 27 · 13:45J. Krames Sr1.91811136113J. Chalupa1.80114111152
V. Burylov10
LOct 11 · 11:00V. Burylov1.911199111D. Gasparovic1.8051111133LOct 11 · 10:00V. Burylov1.831061111122J. Krames Sr1.83121197143WOct 7 · 08:23V. Burylov1.912111113J. Rochowanski1.8019690LOct 7 · 07:45V. Burylov1.911112910112M. Kocvara1.808101112133LOct 7 · 06:15J. Rochowanski1.80131148143V. Burylov1.911191111122LOct 7 · 05:45L. Dobias1.831311113V. Burylov1.8311880WOct 6 · 20:19J. Chalupa1.807950V. Burylov1.911111113LOct 6 · 19:15V. Burylov1.83116111072M. Zelinka1.83411912113WOct 6 · 18:15V. Burylov2.0011711123J. Chalupa1.737118101LOct 6 · 17:15V. Burylov1.91118471D. Gasparovic1.8091111113
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