Miloslav Ullman vs Volodymyr Burylov 3-2

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka Cup

Played Oct 12Finished

Miloslav Ullman

Home

2.10

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

1416121011910121210

Volodymyr Burylov

Away

1.67

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:13 and never touched: 54.6% is still 54.6%

Graded at full time

Volodymyr Burylov to win

54.6%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMiloslav Ullman above · Volodymyr Burylov below

Set 1 · 14-16

Set 2 · 12-10

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 10-12

Set 5 · 12-10

Point 116 set 5, 12-10 · our read held Volodymyr Burylov at 54.6%

116 points played in total.

H2H Miloslav Ullman 4–2 Volodymyr Burylov Volodymyr Burylov has won 2 of their 6 meetings.

Last 6 · 4–2Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Burylov

Ullman 2.10/Burylov 1.67

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.6%

Burylov · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Ullman won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 05:13

54.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666

short by 5.4pp

60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.67 (56%)

Burylov

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

4-2 in 6

Ullman

Correct

gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Ullman 1650 vs Burylov 1713

Burylov

Wrong

both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Ullman 40% vs Burylov 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Ullman 50% vs Burylov 30%

Ullman

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Ullman -2 · Burylov +1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Burylov) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Burylov: form 40%, the price implies 60%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsUllman 2.10 / Burylov 1.666

Signal prob.45% / 55%

Edge (Burylov)-5.4pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 6 meetings

HomeUllman4wins

AwayBurylov2wins

2 of 6 to a deciderUllman leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeUllman100%3 of 3

AwayBurylov66.7%2 of 3

Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Ullman3Burylov3n = 6split evenly

S2Ullman2Burylov4n = 6Burylov took 4 of 6

S3Ullman4Burylov2n = 6Ullman took 4 of 6

S4Ullman2Burylov2n = 4split evenly

Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home117%

3–1Four sets, home117%

3–2Decider, home233%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away117%

0–3Straight, away117%

These 6 meetings

MetricUllmanBurylovU − BBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match36.337.7−1.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricUllmanBurylovBasisWin rate · lifetime183 / 392 vs 221 / 45546.7%48.6%183 / 392 vs 221 / 455Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.6per match

Setka Cup · #13281044

Ullman2.10

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 5 days ago (Oct 07)

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog42% won 30 of 72

Down 0–1, comes back32% 12 of 38

Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17

Burylov1.67

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As favourite41% won 46 of 112

Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18

Up 1–0, closes it61% 33 of 54

Miloslav Ullman vs Volodymyr Burylov 3-2 · Setka Cup

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Miloslav Ullman vs Volodymyr Burylov 3-2 · Setka Cup

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.