TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Miloslav Ullman vs Lukas Adam 3-0 · Setka Cup
Setka Cup
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171412118––––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:57 and never touched: 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Adam to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMiloslav Ullman above · Lukas Adam below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 63 set 3, 11-8 · our read held Lukas Adam at 58.1%
63 points played in total.
H2H Miloslav Ullman 8–12 Lukas Adam Miloslav Ullman has won 8 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5758.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Adam
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
8-12 in 20
Adam
Wrong
gap of 4 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ullman 1659 vs Adam 1723
Adam
Wrong
both rated, 63 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ullman 60% vs Adam 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ullman 60% vs Adam 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ullman +1 · Adam +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% · Slight lean (leans Adam) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ullman form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsUllman 2.20 / Adam 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Adam)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13256009
Ullman2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 32 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back31% 12 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Adam1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 63 of 103
Up 2–0, closes it100% 25 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it88% 44 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeUllman4wins
AwayAdam6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderAdam leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeUllman57.1%4 of 7
AwayAdam100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ullman7Adam3n = 10Ullman took 7 of 10
S2Ullman3Adam7n = 10Adam took 7 of 10
S3Ullman5Adam5n = 10split evenly
S4Ullman3Adam5n = 8Adam took 5 of 8
S5Ullman1Adam2n = 3Adam took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricUllmanAdamU − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.441.6−4.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricUllmanAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime185 / 396 vs 278 / 53546.7%52%185 / 396 vs 278 / 535Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.239.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
AdamUllman 2.20/Adam 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Ullman won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 07:00M. Ullman361114113L. Adam2771280
WJul 17 · 05:15M. Ullman47117711113L. Adam4581111782
LApr 28 · 08:13M. Ullman28126281L. Adam43101111113
LApr 28 · 07:15M. Ullman30741181L. Adam4011117113
WApr 10 · 21:03M. Ullman4313127113L. Adam3811101161
WApr 10 · 20:00M. Ullman3611311113L. Adam36711991
LNov 28 · 07:00M. Ullman2715660L. Adam391711113
LOct 22 · 06:15M. Ullman49121111692L. Adam521013711113
LSep 24 · 19:15M. Ullman4511139572L. Adam517111111113
LSep 8 · 20:12M. Ullman335512111L. Adam45111110133
M. Ullman10
LOct 7 · 07:30M. Kovarik1.7312611113M. Ullman2.001011971WOct 7 · 06:00M. Ullman1.83811113113T. Liska1.8311581162LOct 1 · 08:43T. Liska1.7371111123M. Ullman2.001176101WOct 1 · 07:15M. Vyskocil1.80811861M. Ullman1.9111711113WOct 1 · 06:45M. Ullman1.80111358113J. Senk1.91611111152LOct 1 · 05:45M. Ullman1.9195100T. Liska1.801111123LSep 30 · 08:48J. Rochowanski2.381111113M. Ullman1.539990WSep 30 · 07:15M. Ullman1.73131113113M. Vana2.001181581WSep 30 · 06:15M. Ullman1.83111184113R. Pisa1.8384111192WSep 30 · 05:15M. Ullman1.611111113J. Rochowanski2.209920
L. Adam10
WOct 7 · 05:30M. Kovarik2.387650L. Adam1.531111113LOct 2 · 08:53R. Pisa2.10411711113L. Adam1.6711811572WOct 2 · 07:15L. Adam2.00119117113O. Kaderabek1.7361171182WOct 2 · 06:15L. Adam1.401114118113M. Vyskocil2.7551691182LOct 2 · 05:15L. Adam1.6751191242R. Pisa2.101191110113WSep 24 · 20:48L. Adam1.67116128113R. Pisa2.10711101142LSep 24 · 19:45L. Adam2.2581151192M. Zelinka1.57118113113WSep 24 · 18:15V. Grubr2.251010111392L. Adam1.571212611113WSep 24 · 17:45R. Pisa2.203511131L. Adam1.6111119153LSep 22 · 12:19L. Rulc1.831111113L. Adam1.837990
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