Matyas Navedla vs Tomas Dousek 3-1

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava

Played Oct 12Finished

Matyas Navedla

Home

2.38

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 3

Final

3 – 1

Set by set

1181195111816––

Tomas Dousek

Away

1.53

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:55 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%

Graded at full time

Tomas Dousek to win

62.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Tomas Dousek below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 11-9

Set 3 · 5-11

Set 4 · 18-16

Point 89 set 4, 18-16 · our read held Tomas Dousek at 62.0%

89 points played in total.

H2H Matyas Navedla 9–19 Tomas Dousek Matyas Navedla has won 9 of their 28 meetings.

Last 10 · 5–5Head to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Dousek

Navedla 2.38/Dousek 1.53

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

62%

Dousek · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–1

Navedla won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 19:55

62.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533

short by 3.2pp

65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.53 (61%)

Dousek

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

9-19 in 28

Dousek

Wrong

gap of 10 in 28, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Navedla 1776 vs Dousek 1802

Dousek

Wrong

both rated, 26 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Navedla 40% vs Dousek 40%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Navedla 50% vs Dousek 50%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Navedla -3 · Dousek +1

Navedla

Correct

one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Dousek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Dousek: form 40%, the price implies 65%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsNavedla 2.375 / Dousek 1.533

Signal prob.38% / 62%

Edge (Dousek)-3.2pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeNavedla5wins

AwayDousek5wins

3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeNavedla40%2 of 5

AwayDousek25%1 of 4

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Navedla5Dousek4n = 9Navedla took 5 of 9

S2Navedla5Dousek4n = 9Navedla took 5 of 9

S3Navedla4Dousek5n = 9Dousek took 5 of 9

S4Navedla4Dousek4n = 8split evenly

S5Navedla2Dousek1n = 3Navedla took 2 of 3

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricNavedlaDousekN − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match39.038.7+0.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricNavedlaDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 841 vs 268 / 51047.3%52.6%398 / 841 vs 268 / 510Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.1per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13280571

Navedla2.38

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog42% won 132 of 317

Down 0–1, comes back28% 45 of 163

Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 78

Dousek1.53

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite54% won 119 of 219

Up 2–0, closes it92% 55 of 60

Up 1–0, closes it75% 87 of 116

Matyas Navedla vs Tomas Dousek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Matyas Navedla vs Tomas Dousek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.