Jakub Pilch vs Matyas Navedla 2-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava

Played Oct 12Finished

Jakub Pilch

Home

1.73

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

Final

2 – 3

Set by set

11131178111171315

Matyas Navedla

Away

2.00

At publish

Won last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Won last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:23 and never touched: 54.1% is still 54.1%

Graded at full time

Jakub Pilch to win

54.1%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJakub Pilch above · Matyas Navedla below

Set 1 · 11-13

Set 2 · 11-7

Set 3 · 8-11

Set 4 · 11-7

Set 5 · 13-15

Point 107 set 5, 13-15 · our read held Jakub Pilch at 54.1%

107 points played in total.

H2H Jakub Pilch 34–20 Matyas Navedla Matyas Navedla has won 20 of their 54 meetings.

Last 10 · 8–2Same sideHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Pilch

Pilch 1.73/Navedla 2.00

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54.1%

Pilch · sealed before the serve

What happened

2–3

Navedla won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 06:23

54.1%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727

short by 3.8pp

57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)

What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Pilch

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

34-20 in 54

Pilch

Wrong

gap of 14 in 54, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Pilch 1788 vs Navedla 1798

Navedla

Correct

both rated, 11 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Pilch 60% vs Navedla 60%

—

Too close

0pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Pilch 40% vs Navedla 50%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Pilch -1 · Navedla +2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Pilch) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Market vs Signals

Market oddsPilch 1.727 / Navedla 2.00

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Pilch)-3.8pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomePilch8wins

AwayNavedla2wins

6 of 10 to a deciderPilch leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomePilch85.7%6 of 7

AwayNavedla33.3%1 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Pilch7Navedla3n = 10Pilch took 7 of 10

S2Pilch5Navedla5n = 10split evenly

S3Pilch6Navedla4n = 10Pilch took 6 of 10

S4Pilch6Navedla2n = 8Pilch took 6 of 8

S5Pilch4Navedla2n = 6Pilch took 4 of 6

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home220%

3–1Four sets, home220%

3–2Decider, home440%

2–3Decider, away220%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 10 meetings

MetricPilchNavedlaP − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match46.041.8+4.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricPilchNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 412 vs 397 / 83750.5%47.4%208 / 412 vs 397 / 837Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.7per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13278844

Pilch1.73

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 11 days ago (Oct 01) · back after a break

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As favourite55% won 61 of 111

Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26

Up 1–0, closes it71% 42 of 59

Navedla2.00

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 10)

Won last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog42% won 132 of 317

Down 0–1, comes back28% 45 of 163

Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 78

Jakub Pilch vs Matyas Navedla 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Jakub Pilch vs Matyas Navedla 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.