TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Dousek vs Matyas Navedla 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1161151210––––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:06 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Matyas Navedla below
Set 1 · 8-3
Point 11 set 1, 8-3 · our read held Tomas Dousek at 60.1%
11 points drawn · the score is 44 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Tomas Dousek 18–9 Matyas Navedla Matyas Navedla has won 9 of their 27 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:0660.1%Our read66.7%to break even at 1.50
short by 6.6pp66.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.50 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Dousek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
18-9 in 27
Dousek
Correct
gap of 9 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousek 1817 vs Navedla 1760
Dousek
Correct
both rated, 57 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousek 60% vs Navedla 40%
Dousek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 50% vs Navedla 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek +1 · Navedla -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Dousek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 1.50 / Navedla 2.50
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Dousek)-6.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269671
Dousek1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 118 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it91% 53 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it75% 86 of 115
Navedla2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 132 of 317
Down 0–1, comes back28% 45 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousek5wins
AwayNavedla5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousek25%1 of 4
AwayNavedla33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousek4Navedla6n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S2Dousek4Navedla6n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S3Dousek6Navedla4n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S4Dousek5Navedla4n = 9Dousek took 5 of 9
S5Dousek2Navedla2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousekNavedlaD − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.739.2+0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekNavedlaBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 510 vs 393 / 83252.6%47.2%268 / 510 vs 393 / 832Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DousekDousek 1.50/Navedla 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Dousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 7 · 10:00T. Dousek4071111113M. Navedla32118761
LSep 30 · 17:30T. Dousek42116114102M. Navedla47611711123
LSep 30 · 15:30T. Dousek471011511102M. Navedla48128115123
WSep 20 · 17:29T. Dousek47511119113M. Navedla3711571132
LSep 20 · 14:00T. Dousek33118681M. Navedla4291111113
WSep 14 · 20:00T. Dousek47101511113M. Navedla381213581
LSep 7 · 13:30T. Dousek29116841M. Navedla4071111113
LSep 7 · 11:30T. Dousek2798100M. Navedla341111123
WAug 26 · 12:30T. Dousek3611311113M. Navedla33811591
WAug 24 · 09:28T. Dousek49971111113M. Navedla4111119372
T. Dousek10
WOct 10 · 14:30T. Zika2.2587111132T. Dousek1.57111185113LOct 10 · 13:30M. Biolek1.5714411113T. Dousek2.251211891WOct 10 · 12:30D. Opanasiuk1.7371113101T. Dousek2.0011715123WOct 10 · 11:30T. Dousek2.381112118113M. Biolek1.5351461152LOct 10 · 10:30T. Zika2.201213113T. Dousek1.61101140LOct 7 · 13:30T. Dousek1.851061121T. Zika1.8512117113WOct 7 · 12:00T. Dousek1.571111133P. Wawrosz2.2564110LOct 7 · 11:30T. Zika2.2511116113T. Dousek1.57871171WOct 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.5771111113M. Navedla2.25118761LOct 7 · 08:58M. Vavrecka1.9161111113T. Dousek1.80113891
M. Navedla10
WOct 10 · 16:00M. Navedla2.20111189113T. Zika1.6169111192LOct 10 · 14:00M. Navedla1.8391161182P. Wawrosz1.83118117113WOct 9 · 20:58M. Navedla1.671111113L. Prikasky2.106990WOct 9 · 20:30M. Navedla1.6711118133L. Prikasky2.109911111LOct 9 · 19:00M. Navedla2.251114671M. Cabis1.5791611113LOct 9 · 18:00P. Wawrosz1.8311116113M. Navedla1.83971171LOct 9 · 17:30M. Navedla2.15315771M. Cabis1.62111311113WOct 9 · 16:30M. Cabis1.5711118572M. Navedla2.25291111113WOct 9 · 15:30M. Navedla1.671111810113L. Prikasky2.1092111292LOct 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.5771111113M. Navedla2.25118761
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.