TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Dousek vs Martin Biolek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1151214116811115
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched: 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeMartin Biolek to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Martin Biolek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 94 set 5, 11-5 · our read held Martin Biolek at 63.2%
94 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousek 5–16 Martin Biolek Tomas Dousek has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2763.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 2.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Biolek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-16 in 21
Biolek
Wrong
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousek 1788 vs Biolek 1882
Biolek
Wrong
both rated, 94 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousek 40% vs Biolek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 30% vs Biolek 70%
Biolek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek -2 · Biolek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Biolek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Biolek form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 2.375 / Biolek 1.533
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Biolek)-2.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269893
Dousek2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 37 of 91
Down 0–1, comes back31% 16 of 51
Down 0–2, comes back9% 2 of 23
Biolek1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 114 of 219
Up 2–0, closes it90% 55 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it71% 85 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousek2wins
AwayBiolek8wins
6 of 10 to a deciderBiolek leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousek20%1 of 5
AwayBiolek80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousek5Biolek5n = 10split evenly
S2Dousek3Biolek7n = 10Biolek took 7 of 10
S3Dousek5Biolek5n = 10split evenly
S4Dousek3Biolek5n = 8Biolek took 5 of 8
S5Dousek1Biolek5n = 6Biolek took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousekBiolekD − BBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.242.8−4.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekBiolekBasisWin rate · lifetime267 / 508 vs 259 / 47052.6%55.1%267 / 508 vs 259 / 470Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.238.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BiolekDousek 2.38/Biolek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.2%
Biolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Dousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 27 · 19:30T. Dousek225890M. Biolek331111113
LSep 20 · 21:30T. Dousek38991191M. Biolek4211119113
LSep 20 · 19:30T. Dousek4211961152M. Biolek45511117113
LSep 19 · 16:00T. Dousek44111011392M. Biolek49912611113
LSep 15 · 18:00T. Dousek4591111772M. Biolek50119811113
WSep 13 · 18:30T. Dousek48711811113M. Biolek4511911952
WSep 10 · 14:00T. Dousek44111111113M. Biolek34691361
LSep 5 · 16:00T. Dousek4311911842M. Biolek48711811113
LAug 17 · 14:00T. Dousek4214611922M. Biolek491211411113
LJul 14 · 14:00T. Dousek145450M. Biolek331111113
T. Dousek10
LOct 10 · 10:30T. Zika2.201213113T. Dousek1.61101140LOct 7 · 13:30T. Dousek1.851061121T. Zika1.8512117113WOct 7 · 12:00T. Dousek1.571111133P. Wawrosz2.2564110LOct 7 · 11:30T. Zika2.2511116113T. Dousek1.57871171WOct 7 · 10:00T. Dousek1.5771111113M. Navedla2.25118761LOct 7 · 08:58M. Vavrecka1.9161111113T. Dousek1.80113891LOct 7 · 08:00T. Zika2.2081111113T. Dousek1.61116781WOct 7 · 07:00M. Vavrecka1.83710111122T. Dousek1.83111286113LOct 7 · 06:30T. Dousek1.807101181R. Polasek1.9111127113LOct 5 · 21:00R. Revay1.73118312113T. Dousek2.00611111082
M. Biolek10
WOct 10 · 12:00M. Biolek1.441111113T. Zika2.634960WOct 10 · 10:00M. Biolek1.801111113D. Opanasiuk1.916830WOct 8 · 17:13T. Zika1.531511671M. Biolek2.38131311113LOct 8 · 16:00M. Biolek1.8391191192J. Szotkowski1.83118116113LOct 8 · 15:30T. Zika2.751111123M. Biolek1.4088100LOct 8 · 14:00M. Biolek1.8085111182J. Dzida1.91111189113WOct 6 · 17:30M. Biolek1.5011116113T. Zika2.50551131WOct 6 · 16:30M. Biolek1.831141110113J. Szotkowski1.8381151272WOct 6 · 15:00M. Biolek1.44111111113T. Zika2.63136911WOct 6 · 14:00O. Paril2.204670M. Biolek1.611111113
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