TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Martin Biolek vs Jan Szotkowski 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911118911116911
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:57 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Szotkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Biolek above · Jan Szotkowski below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 96 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Jan Szotkowski at 54.0%
96 points played in total.
H2H Martin Biolek 27–29 Jan Szotkowski Martin Biolek has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:5754.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Szotkowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
27-29 in 56
Szotkowski
Correct
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Biolek 1867 vs Szotkowski 1871
Szotkowski
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Biolek 60% vs Szotkowski 80%
Szotkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Biolek 60% vs Szotkowski 40%
Biolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Biolek -2 · Szotkowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Szotkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBiolek 1.833 / Szotkowski 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Szotkowski)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13259177
Biolek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Szotkowski1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBiolek3wins
AwaySzotkowski7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBiolek75%3 of 4
AwaySzotkowski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Biolek4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S2Biolek2Szotkowski8n = 10Szotkowski took 8 of 10
S3Biolek4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S4Biolek2Szotkowski3n = 5Szotkowski took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricBiolekSzotkowskiB − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.736.7−5.0per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBiolekSzotkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime257 / 467 vs 440 / 84255%52.3%257 / 467 vs 440 / 842Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.740.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SzotkowskiBiolek 1.83/Szotkowski 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Szotkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szotkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 6 · 16:30M. Biolek471141110113J. Szotkowski4381151272
LOct 1 · 16:30M. Biolek49711911112J. Szotkowski49116118133
WSep 24 · 17:00M. Biolek331111113J. Szotkowski208750
LSep 24 · 15:00M. Biolek32119931J. Szotkowski3741111113
WSep 22 · 15:30M. Biolek4411913113J. Szotkowski378111171
LSep 21 · 15:00M. Biolek2899100J. Szotkowski341111123
LSep 19 · 17:29M. Biolek164840J. Szotkowski331111113
LSep 19 · 14:30M. Biolek1841040J. Szotkowski341112113
LSep 19 · 13:30M. Biolek33641671J. Szotkowski47111114113
LSep 19 · 11:30M. Biolek176560J. Szotkowski331111113
M. Biolek10
LOct 8 · 15:30T. Zika2.751111123M. Biolek1.4088100LOct 8 · 14:00M. Biolek1.8085111182J. Dzida1.91111189113WOct 6 · 17:30M. Biolek1.5011116113T. Zika2.50551131WOct 6 · 16:30M. Biolek1.831141110113J. Szotkowski1.8381151272WOct 6 · 15:00M. Biolek1.44111111113T. Zika2.63136911WOct 6 · 14:00O. Paril2.204670M. Biolek1.611111113WOct 4 · 17:00M. Biolek1.83111187113D. Opanasiuk1.8367111172LOct 4 · 16:30O. Paril3.251115113M. Biolek1.3381340WOct 4 · 15:30M. Biolek1.831111113D. Opanasiuk1.839470LOct 4 · 14:30R. Revay3.50811911113M. Biolek1.2811911692
J. Szotkowski10
LOct 8 · 15:00J. Dzida1.671411711113J. Szotkowski2.10123111372WOct 8 · 14:30J. Szotkowski1.571111173T. Zika2.2569150WOct 8 · 13:30M. Sedlacek1.73411991J. Szotkowski2.0011611113WOct 8 · 12:30R. Revay2.002350J. Szotkowski1.731111113WOct 8 · 11:30J. Szotkowski1.9114126113M. Sedlacek1.8012101161LOct 8 · 10:30T. Zika2.101111123J. Szotkowski1.6798100LOct 6 · 17:03O. Paril2.381091111113J. Szotkowski1.5312114592LOct 6 · 16:30M. Biolek1.831141110113J. Szotkowski1.8381151272LOct 6 · 15:30J. Szotkowski1.61131181252O. Paril2.201591110113LOct 6 · 14:30T. Zika2.1011111010113J. Szotkowski1.6758121272
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