TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Szotkowski vs Michael Sedlacek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 8Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 7
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
14121210611116––
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:20 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichael Sedlacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Szotkowski above · Michael Sedlacek below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 82 set 4, 11-6 · our read held Michael Sedlacek at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jan Szotkowski 44–56 Michael Sedlacek Jan Szotkowski has won 44 of their 100 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2054.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sedlacek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
44-56 in 100
Sedlacek
Wrong
gap of 12 in 100, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotkowski 1823 vs Sedlacek 1936
Sedlacek
Wrong
both rated, 113 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotkowski 0% vs Sedlacek 100%
Sedlacek
Wrong
100pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotkowski 20% vs Sedlacek 80%
Sedlacek
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotkowski -7 · Sedlacek +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sedlacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sedlacek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotkowski 1.909 / Sedlacek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sedlacek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13259268
Szotkowski1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 7
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog55% won 71 of 129
Down 0–1, comes back18% 9 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Sedlacek1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 103 of 169
Up 2–0, closes it90% 36 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it77% 67 of 87
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotkowski4wins
AwaySedlacek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSedlacek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotkowski66.7%4 of 6
AwaySedlacek100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotkowski6Sedlacek4n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S2Szotkowski5Sedlacek5n = 10split evenly
S3Szotkowski6Sedlacek4n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S4Szotkowski1Sedlacek6n = 7Sedlacek took 6 of 7
S5Szotkowski1Sedlacek2n = 3Sedlacek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotkowskiSedlacekSzotkowski − SedlacekBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.439.7−3.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotkowskiSedlacekBasisWin rate · lifetime436 / 837 vs 308 / 49552.1%62.2%436 / 837 vs 308 / 495Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.340.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SedlacekSzotkowski 1.91/Sedlacek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sedlacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Szotkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 6 · 12:00J. Szotkowski4051111762M. Sedlacek49117911113
LSep 3 · 11:00J. Szotkowski219660M. Sedlacek331111113
LSep 2 · 12:00J. Szotkowski26611631M. Sedlacek4011711113
WAug 18 · 13:30J. Szotkowski331111113M. Sedlacek239950
WAug 18 · 10:00J. Szotkowski3911116113M. Sedlacek30831181
LAug 11 · 13:28J. Szotkowski31143951M. Sedlacek45121111113
WAug 11 · 12:00J. Szotkowski341211113M. Sedlacek2710980
LAug 10 · 13:28J. Szotkowski4213711742M. Sedlacek531111911113
WAug 10 · 12:00J. Szotkowski49118127113M. Sedlacek45611101172
LAug 5 · 12:58J. Szotkowski4991411151M. Sedlacek5211168173
J. Szotkowski10
WOct 8 · 12:30R. Revay2.002350J. Szotkowski1.731111113LOct 8 · 10:30T. Zika2.101111123J. Szotkowski1.6798100LOct 6 · 17:03O. Paril2.381091111113J. Szotkowski1.5312114592LOct 6 · 16:30M. Biolek1.831141110113J. Szotkowski1.8381151272LOct 6 · 15:30J. Szotkowski1.61131181252O. Paril2.201591110113LOct 6 · 14:30T. Zika2.1011111010113J. Szotkowski1.6758121272LOct 6 · 12:58J. Szotkowski1.5081250R. Polasek2.501114113LOct 6 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.83117911113J. Szotkowski1.8351111762WOct 6 · 11:00R. Polasek2.255580J. Szotkowski1.571111113LOct 6 · 10:30J. Szotkowski1.67611111092T. Zika2.10114812113
M. Sedlacek10
WOct 8 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.441111143T. Zika2.6349120WOct 8 · 10:00M. Sedlacek1.671112113R. Revay2.1061090WOct 6 · 13:28M. Sedlacek1.4415119113T. Zika2.631371181WOct 6 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.83117911113J. Szotkowski1.8351111762WOct 6 · 11:30T. Zika2.5011411632M. Sedlacek1.50511711113WOct 6 · 10:00M. Sedlacek1.5381111113R. Polasek2.38114941LSep 3 · 13:28T. Dousek1.801111123M. Sedlacek1.9146100LSep 3 · 12:30M. Sedlacek1.4081111842T. Zika2.75114711113WSep 3 · 11:00M. Sedlacek1.801111113J. Szotkowski1.919660WSep 3 · 10:00T. Dousek2.0061181192M. Sedlacek1.73118113113
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