TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michael Sedlacek vs Jan Szotkowski 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 6Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115711911117116
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:54 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichael Sedlacek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichael Sedlacek above · Jan Szotkowski below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 89 set 5, 11-6 · our read held Michael Sedlacek at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Michael Sedlacek 55–44 Jan Szotkowski Jan Szotkowski has won 44 of their 99 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5454.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Szotkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
55-44 in 99
Sedlacek
Correct
gap of 11 in 99, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sedlacek 1906 vs Szotkowski 1910
Szotkowski
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sedlacek 60% vs Szotkowski 80%
Szotkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sedlacek 60% vs Szotkowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sedlacek +2 · Szotkowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Sedlacek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSedlacek 1.833 / Szotkowski 1.833
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sedlacek)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13248762
Sedlacek1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Szotkowski1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSedlacek6wins
AwaySzotkowski4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSedlacek leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSedlacek100%4 of 4
AwaySzotkowski66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sedlacek4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S2Sedlacek6Szotkowski4n = 10Sedlacek took 6 of 10
S3Sedlacek4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S4Sedlacek6Szotkowski1n = 7Sedlacek took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSedlacekSzotkowskiSedlacek − SzotkowskiBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.835.8+3.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSedlacekSzotkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime305 / 492 vs 436 / 83062%52.5%305 / 492 vs 436 / 830Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.740.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SedlacekSedlacek 1.83/Szotkowski 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sedlacek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sedlacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 11:00M. Sedlacek331111113J. Szotkowski219660
WSep 2 · 12:00M. Sedlacek4011711113J. Szotkowski26611631
LAug 18 · 13:30M. Sedlacek239950J. Szotkowski331111113
LAug 18 · 10:00M. Sedlacek30831181J. Szotkowski3911116113
WAug 11 · 13:28M. Sedlacek45121111113J. Szotkowski31143951
LAug 11 · 12:00M. Sedlacek2710980J. Szotkowski341211113
WAug 10 · 13:28M. Sedlacek531111911113J. Szotkowski4213711742
LAug 10 · 12:00M. Sedlacek45611101172J. Szotkowski49118127113
WAug 5 · 12:58M. Sedlacek5211168173J. Szotkowski4991411151
WAug 5 · 11:00M. Sedlacek4011117113J. Szotkowski34771191
M. Sedlacek10
WOct 6 · 11:30T. Zika2.5011411632M. Sedlacek1.50511711113WOct 6 · 10:00M. Sedlacek1.5381111113R. Polasek2.38114941LSep 3 · 13:28T. Dousek1.801111123M. Sedlacek1.9146100LSep 3 · 12:30M. Sedlacek1.4081111842T. Zika2.75114711113WSep 3 · 11:00M. Sedlacek1.801111113J. Szotkowski1.919660WSep 3 · 10:00T. Dousek2.0061181192M. Sedlacek1.73118113113WSep 2 · 12:59T. Zika2.2011770M. Sedlacek1.611311113WSep 2 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.7311711113J. Szotkowski2.00611631LSep 2 · 11:30T. Zika2.631111123M. Sedlacek1.4446100LSep 2 · 10:00M. Sedlacek1.67511961T. Dousek2.1011911113
J. Szotkowski10
LOct 6 · 12:58J. Szotkowski1.5081250R. Polasek2.501114113WOct 6 · 11:00R. Polasek2.255580J. Szotkowski1.571111113LOct 6 · 10:30J. Szotkowski1.67611111092T. Zika2.10114812113WOct 5 · 17:30J. Szotkowski1.671111113O. Paril2.104760WOct 5 · 16:00O. Paril2.10612751J. Szotkowski1.67111011113WOct 5 · 15:00J. Dzida1.67491111112J. Szotkowski2.10111129133WOct 5 · 14:30J. Szotkowski1.5711811113T. Zika2.25711991LOct 1 · 17:03R. Niezgoda1.8011511113J. Szotkowski1.91911351LSep 3 · 11:00M. Sedlacek1.801111113J. Szotkowski1.919660LSep 2 · 12:00M. Sedlacek1.7311711113J. Szotkowski2.00611631
Upcoming Matches
M. Sedlacek
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J. Szotkowski
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