TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Szotkowski vs Tadeas Zika 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117811119119––
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:17 and never touched: 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeJan Szotkowski to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Szotkowski above · Tadeas Zika below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 77 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Jan Szotkowski at 59.7%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jan Szotkowski 122–103 Tadeas Zika Tadeas Zika has won 103 of their 225 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:1759.7%Our read63.7%to break even at 1.571
short by 4.0pp63.7% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.571 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Szotkowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
122-103 in 225
Szotkowski
Correct
gap of 19 in 225, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotkowski 1869 vs Zika 1764
Szotkowski
Correct
both rated, 104 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotkowski 20% vs Zika 40%
Zika
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotkowski 60% vs Zika 20%
Szotkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotkowski -1 · Zika -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Szotkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotkowski 1.571 / Zika 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Szotkowski)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13242539
Szotkowski1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 145 of 268
Up 2–0, closes it94% 77 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it75% 116 of 154
Zika2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 4 days ago (Oct 01)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 299 of 646
Down 0–1, comes back27% 87 of 323
Down 0–2, comes back7% 12 of 167
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotkowski7wins
AwayZika3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotkowski100%6 of 6
AwayZika75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotkowski6Zika4n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S2Szotkowski7Zika3n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10
S3Szotkowski6Zika4n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S4Szotkowski7Zika1n = 8Szotkowski took 7 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotkowskiZikaS − ZBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.734.9+5.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotkowskiZikaBasisWin rate · lifetime448 / 853 vs 809 / 175652.5%46.1%448 / 853 vs 809 / 1756Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SzotkowskiSzotkowski 1.57/Zika 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.7%
Szotkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Szotkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 10:00J. Szotkowski331111113T. Zika249960
LSep 28 · 07:00J. Szotkowski45111171152T. Zika48139114113
LSep 24 · 14:30J. Szotkowski40914891T. Zika45111211113
WSep 24 · 12:58J. Szotkowski331111113T. Zika149230
WSep 24 · 10:00J. Szotkowski4311812123T. Zika3541110101
WSep 22 · 11:30J. Szotkowski4011711113T. Zika29511851
WSep 21 · 13:30J. Szotkowski4111811113T. Zika33711691
LSep 21 · 11:30J. Szotkowski47711111172T. Zika52118139113
WSep 19 · 16:30J. Szotkowski46111410113T. Zika397121281
WSep 19 · 12:30J. Szotkowski3961111113T. Zika30115861
J. Szotkowski10
WOct 5 · 16:00O. Paril2.10612751J. Szotkowski1.67111011113WOct 5 · 15:00J. Dzida1.67491111112J. Szotkowski2.10111129133LOct 1 · 17:03R. Niezgoda1.8011511113J. Szotkowski1.91911351WOct 1 · 16:30M. Biolek2.00711911112J. Szotkowski1.73116118133LOct 1 · 15:30J. Szotkowski2.005137151R. Niezgoda1.73111111173LOct 1 · 14:30J. Dzida1.731311123J. Szotkowski2.00116100LOct 1 · 13:30J. Szotkowski1.736670O. Paril2.001111113WOct 1 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.731111113O. Paril2.003760WOct 1 · 11:30P. Wawrosz2.7581171272J. Szotkowski1.401131110113WOct 1 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.571111113T. Zika2.259960
T. Zika10
LOct 5 · 15:30T. Zika1.831161191O. Paril1.8391113113LOct 1 · 16:59T. Zika1.8011471192R. Polasek1.91811117113LOct 1 · 16:00T. Dousek1.67111111113T. Zika2.10138991WOct 1 · 15:00R. Polasek1.91511111102T. Zika1.80116119123LOct 1 · 14:30T. Zika1.831271161J. Pilch1.8314116113WOct 1 · 12:58P. Wawrosz1.67115561T. Zika2.1091111113LOct 1 · 12:30T. Zika1.8038110P. Wawrosz1.911111133LOct 1 · 11:00T. Zika1.9113915992O. Paril1.8011111311113LOct 1 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.571111113T. Zika2.259960LSep 30 · 20:59T. Zika1.8311129862R. Revay1.837101111113
Upcoming Matches
J. Szotkowski
T. Zika
Oct 5 · 16:30T. Zika3.25J. Dzida1.33—Oct 5 · 18:30T. Zika2.10T. Dousek1.67—Oct 5 · 19:30T. Zika1.67M. Vavrecka2.10—Oct 5 · 20:30T. Zika1.80R. Revay1.91—Oct 6 · 10:30T. Zika2.10J. Szotkowski1.67—Oct 6 · 11:30T. Zika2.50M. Sedlacek1.50—Oct 6 · 12:30T. Zika1.73R. Polasek2.00—Oct 6 · 14:30T. Zika2.10J. Szotkowski1.67—Oct 6 · 15:00T. Zika2.63M. Biolek1.44—Oct 6 · 16:00T. Zika1.83O. Paril1.83—
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