TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Szotkowski vs Ondrej Paril 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
113117116––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:58 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Szotkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Szotkowski above · Ondrej Paril below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 49 set 3, 11-6 · our read held Jan Szotkowski at 54.0%
49 points played in total.
H2H Jan Szotkowski 40–37 Ondrej Paril Ondrej Paril has won 37 of their 77 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:5854.0%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.9pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Szotkowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
40-37 in 77
Szotkowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 77, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotkowski 1897 vs Paril 1866
Szotkowski
Correct
both rated, 30 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotkowski 80% vs Paril 60%
Szotkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotkowski 50% vs Paril 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotkowski +4 · Paril +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Szotkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotkowski 1.727 / Paril 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Szotkowski)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222451
Szotkowski1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 141 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it94% 75 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it75% 112 of 150
Paril2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog47% won 114 of 245
Down 0–1, comes back24% 33 of 137
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 77
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotkowski6wins
AwayParil4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotkowski71.4%5 of 7
AwayParil66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotkowski7Paril3n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10
S2Szotkowski9Paril1n = 10Szotkowski took 9 of 10
S3Szotkowski4Paril6n = 10Paril took 6 of 10
S4Szotkowski1Paril6n = 7Paril took 6 of 7
S5Szotkowski3Paril2n = 5Szotkowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotkowskiParilS − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.838.6+1.2per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotkowskiParilBasisWin rate · lifetime446 / 847 vs 511 / 97852.7%52.3%446 / 847 vs 511 / 978Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SzotkowskiSzotkowski 1.73/Paril 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Szotkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Szotkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 21 · 14:30J. Szotkowski511151111133O. Paril53911913112
LAug 31 · 21:30J. Szotkowski50111298102O. Paril462101111123
LAug 31 · 18:00J. Szotkowski3811119342O. Paril47771111113
WAug 27 · 13:00J. Szotkowski331111113O. Paril217770
LAug 27 · 12:00J. Szotkowski28511661O. Paril4011711113
WAug 25 · 12:00J. Szotkowski49111179113O. Paril4789111182
WAug 20 · 10:00J. Szotkowski341112113O. Paril2351080
WAug 11 · 11:30J. Szotkowski47511812113O. Paril47116111092
WJul 19 · 11:00J. Szotkowski341111123O. Paril2477100
LJul 17 · 09:29J. Szotkowski34811691O. Paril3811511113
J. Szotkowski10
WOct 1 · 11:30P. Wawrosz2.7581171272J. Szotkowski1.401131110113WOct 1 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.571111113T. Zika2.259960WSep 28 · 09:07J. Szotkowski1.201111113J. Pilch3.956940WSep 28 · 08:00J. Pilch2.504560J. Szotkowski1.501111113LSep 28 · 07:00T. Zika2.10139114113J. Szotkowski1.67111171152LSep 28 · 06:30J. Szotkowski1.73119691R. Revay2.0091111113LSep 24 · 17:00J. Szotkowski1.608750M. Biolek2.201111113LSep 24 · 16:00R. Niezgoda1.83131111113J. Szotkowski1.83157971WSep 24 · 15:00M. Biolek2.00119931J. Szotkowski1.7341111113LSep 24 · 14:30J. Szotkowski1.67914891T. Zika2.10111211113
O. Paril10
WOct 1 · 11:00T. Zika1.9113915992O. Paril1.8011111311113WOct 1 · 10:30O. Paril1.8012117113P. Wawrosz1.911091191WSep 29 · 16:58M. Biolek1.6711711111O. Paril2.1071113133LSep 29 · 16:30T. Zika1.8312115113O. Paril1.831091141LSep 29 · 15:30O. Paril4.0091090R. Niezgoda1.221112113WSep 29 · 14:30M. Biolek1.731298111O. Paril2.00101111133LSep 27 · 21:00T. Dousek1.831111113O. Paril1.838770LSep 27 · 20:00T. Dousek1.839111110113O. Paril1.8311581252LSep 27 · 19:00J. Dzida1.671111113O. Paril2.109670LSep 27 · 18:30O. Paril2.108121151M. Biolek1.6711148113
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