TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Wawrosz vs Jan Szotkowski 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111137111210711
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:21 and never touched: 68.7% is still 68.7%
Graded at full timeJan Szotkowski to win
68.7%
68.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Wawrosz above · Jan Szotkowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 91 set 5, 7-11 · our read held Jan Szotkowski at 68.7%
91 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Wawrosz 5–16 Jan Szotkowski Pavel Wawrosz has won 5 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:2168.7%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 2.7pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Szotkowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-16 in 21
Szotkowski
Correct
gap of 11 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wawrosz 1763 vs Szotkowski 1897
Szotkowski
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wawrosz 20% vs Szotkowski 60%
Szotkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wawrosz 40% vs Szotkowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wawrosz -1 · Szotkowski +3
Szotkowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Szotkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szotkowski form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWawrosz 2.75 / Szotkowski 1.40
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Szotkowski)-2.7pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222531
Wawrosz2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 50 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back33% 15 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back18% 4 of 22
Szotkowski1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 141 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it94% 75 of 80
Up 1–0, closes it75% 112 of 150
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWawrosz1wins
AwaySzotkowski9wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 9–1, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWawrosz25%1 of 4
AwaySzotkowski100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wawrosz4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S2Wawrosz2Szotkowski8n = 10Szotkowski took 8 of 10
S3Wawrosz4Szotkowski6n = 10Szotkowski took 6 of 10
S4Wawrosz4Szotkowski3n = 7Wawrosz took 4 of 7
S5Wawrosz0Szotkowski5n = 5Szotkowski took 5 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away550%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricWawroszSzotkowskiW − SBasisWins19−8in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.143.0−6.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWawroszSzotkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 463 vs 446 / 84750.1%52.7%232 / 463 vs 446 / 847Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SzotkowskiWawrosz 2.75/Szotkowski 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Szotkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Szotkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 1 · 11:30P. Wawrosz4581171272J. Szotkowski461131110113
LSep 17 · 13:00P. Wawrosz209470J. Szotkowski331111113
LSep 17 · 10:30P. Wawrosz207940J. Szotkowski331111113
LSep 14 · 13:00P. Wawrosz4814811692J. Szotkowski501211511113
LSep 14 · 10:00P. Wawrosz46671112102J. Szotkowski531111910123
LAug 20 · 17:28P. Wawrosz1911530J. Szotkowski351311113
WAug 20 · 15:00P. Wawrosz45111111123J. Szotkowski399137101
LJul 28 · 13:00P. Wawrosz4268111162J. Szotkowski48111169113
LJul 28 · 10:30P. Wawrosz361161091J. Szotkowski4391112113
LJul 9 · 17:29P. Wawrosz4011114862J. Szotkowski50981111113
P. Wawrosz10
WOct 1 · 12:30T. Zika1.8038110P. Wawrosz1.911111133LOct 1 · 10:30O. Paril1.8012117113P. Wawrosz1.911091191WSep 27 · 16:58J. Pilch1.736780P. Wawrosz2.001111113LSep 27 · 16:30J. Pilch1.73111112123P. Wawrosz2.007514101LSep 27 · 15:30P. Wawrosz1.9161111642O. Paril1.80118611113LSep 27 · 14:30M. Biolek2.201111113P. Wawrosz1.617450LSep 25 · 09:30T. Zika1.8091311113P. Wawrosz1.911111971LSep 25 · 08:30P. Wawrosz1.739840M. Navedla2.001111113WSep 25 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.80611119113R. Revay1.9111881142WSep 25 · 06:00T. Zika1.67101080P. Wawrosz2.101212113
J. Szotkowski10
WOct 1 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.731111113O. Paril2.003760WOct 1 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.571111113T. Zika2.259960WSep 28 · 09:07J. Szotkowski1.201111113J. Pilch3.956940WSep 28 · 08:00J. Pilch2.504560J. Szotkowski1.501111113LSep 28 · 07:00T. Zika2.10139114113J. Szotkowski1.67111171152LSep 28 · 06:30J. Szotkowski1.73119691R. Revay2.0091111113LSep 24 · 17:00J. Szotkowski1.608750M. Biolek2.201111113LSep 24 · 16:00R. Niezgoda1.83131111113J. Szotkowski1.83157971WSep 24 · 15:00M. Biolek2.00119931J. Szotkowski1.7341111113LSep 24 · 14:30J. Szotkowski1.67914891T. Zika2.10111211113
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