TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Szotkowski vs Rostislav Niezgoda 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
51113117111517––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:18 and never touched: 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Szotkowski above · Rostislav Niezgoda below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 15-17
Point 90 set 4, 15-17 · our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 54.5%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jan Szotkowski 2–2 Rostislav Niezgoda Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1854.5%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 3.4pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotkowski 1881 vs Niezgoda 1884
Niezgoda
Correct
both rated, 2 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotkowski 60% vs Niezgoda 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotkowski 50% vs Niezgoda 70%
Niezgoda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotkowski -2 · Niezgoda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Niezgoda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotkowski 2.00 / Niezgoda 1.727
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Niezgoda)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222591
Szotkowski2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog56% won 71 of 126
Down 0–1, comes back19% 9 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Niezgoda1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 13 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 8 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it77% 10 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSzotkowski2wins
AwayNiezgoda2wins
Level at 2–2.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotkowski2Niezgoda2n = 4split evenly
S2Szotkowski2Niezgoda2n = 4split evenly
S3Szotkowski1Niezgoda3n = 4Niezgoda took 3 of 4
S4Szotkowski2Niezgoda1n = 3Szotkowski took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricSzotkowskiNiezgodaS − NBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match36.239.0−2.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotkowskiNiezgodaBasisWin rate · lifetime447 / 850 vs 20 / 3352.6%60.6%447 / 850 vs 20 / 33Avg sets wonper match2.22.4per matchAvg pointsper match40.340.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaSzotkowski 2.00/Niezgoda 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 24 · 16:00J. Szotkowski38157971R. Niezgoda46131111113
LSep 22 · 16:30J. Szotkowski198560R. Niezgoda331111113
WSep 19 · 10:30J. Szotkowski4212136113R. Niezgoda4110111191
WSep 17 · 15:00J. Szotkowski46131111113R. Niezgoda36153991
J. Szotkowski10
LOct 1 · 14:30J. Dzida1.731311123J. Szotkowski2.00116100LOct 1 · 13:30J. Szotkowski1.736670O. Paril2.001111113WOct 1 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.731111113O. Paril2.003760WOct 1 · 11:30P. Wawrosz2.7581171272J. Szotkowski1.401131110113WOct 1 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.571111113T. Zika2.259960WSep 28 · 09:07J. Szotkowski1.201111113J. Pilch3.956940WSep 28 · 08:00J. Pilch2.504560J. Szotkowski1.501111113LSep 28 · 07:00T. Zika2.10139114113J. Szotkowski1.67111171152LSep 28 · 06:30J. Szotkowski1.73119691R. Revay2.0091111113LSep 24 · 17:00J. Szotkowski1.608750M. Biolek2.201111113
R. Niezgoda10
LOct 1 · 16:00R. Niezgoda1.8081261472J. Dzida1.9111101112113LOct 1 · 14:00R. Niezgoda1.8371090M. Biolek1.831112113WSep 29 · 17:30R. Niezgoda1.661211163T. Zika2.10105140WSep 29 · 16:00R. Niezgoda1.801111113M. Biolek1.918590WSep 29 · 15:30O. Paril4.0091090R. Niezgoda1.221112113LSep 29 · 14:00R. Niezgoda1.611110721T. Zika2.2061211113LSep 24 · 17:30R. Niezgoda1.5581411762T. Zika2.301112511113WSep 24 · 16:00R. Niezgoda1.83131111113J. Szotkowski1.83157971WSep 24 · 15:30T. Zika2.3891181162R. Niezgoda1.53115116113WSep 24 · 14:00R. Niezgoda1.85591113113M. Biolek1.85111151132
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.