TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Rostislav Niezgoda vs Tadeas Zika 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 29Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101151614––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:04 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRostislav Niezgoda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
RightSent to Pro: Rostislav Niezgoda @ 1.66 · Won
How it is goingRostislav Niezgoda above · Tadeas Zika below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 16-14
Point 68 set 3, 16-14 · our read held Rostislav Niezgoda at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Rostislav Niezgoda 4–4 Tadeas Zika Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Zika beat Niezgoda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pick
Sealed 17:04Sent to Pro: Rostislav Niezgoda @ 1.66 · Won
What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.66 (56%)
Niezgoda
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Niezgoda 1888 vs Zika 1833
Niezgoda
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Niezgoda 60% vs Zika 40%
Niezgoda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Niezgoda 80% vs Zika 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Niezgoda +2 · Zika +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent when this read was sealed. The pick sent to Pro came from a re-read before the serve.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Niezgoda) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNiezgoda 1.66 / Zika 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Niezgoda)-1.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13218078
Niezgoda1.66
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 10 of 17
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it78% 7 of 9
Zika2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 302 of 655
Down 0–1, comes back27% 88 of 328
Down 0–2, comes back8% 13 of 171
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeNiezgoda4wins
AwayZika4wins
6 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 6 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNiezgoda60%3 of 5
AwayZika66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Niezgoda5Zika3n = 8Niezgoda took 5 of 8
S2Niezgoda4Zika4n = 8split evenly
S3Niezgoda4Zika4n = 8split evenly
S4Niezgoda3Zika4n = 7Zika took 4 of 7
S5Niezgoda3Zika3n = 6split evenly
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricNiezgodaZikaN − ZBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set53+2of 8Avg pointsper match43.941.9+2.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNiezgodaZikaBasisWin rate · lifetime19 / 31 vs 806 / 174361.3%46.2%19 / 31 vs 806 / 1743Avg sets wonper match2.52.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
NiezgodaNiezgoda 1.66/Zika 2.10
Hit
What we said
54%
Niezgoda · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Rostislav Niezgoda @ 1.66 · Won
What happened
3–0
Niezgoda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LSep 29 · 14:00R. Niezgoda301110721T. Zika4061211113
LSep 24 · 17:30R. Niezgoda4681411762T. Zika501112511113
WSep 24 · 15:30R. Niezgoda44115116113T. Zika4591181162
WSep 19 · 13:00R. Niezgoda331111113T. Zika166730
WSep 19 · 11:00R. Niezgoda48711811113T. Zika4411711782
WSep 17 · 16:30R. Niezgoda561114911113T. Zika4661611852
LSep 16 · 21:28R. Niezgoda4611812692T. Zika507111011113
LSep 16 · 20:00R. Niezgoda485111011112T. Zika44115123133
R. Niezgoda10
WSep 29 · 16:00R. Niezgoda1.801111113M. Biolek1.918590WSep 29 · 15:30O. Paril4.0091090R. Niezgoda1.221112113LSep 29 · 14:00R. Niezgoda1.611110721T. Zika2.2061211113LSep 24 · 17:30R. Niezgoda1.5581411762T. Zika2.301112511113WSep 24 · 16:00R. Niezgoda1.83131111113J. Szotkowski1.83157971WSep 24 · 15:30T. Zika2.3891181162R. Niezgoda1.53115116113WSep 24 · 14:00R. Niezgoda1.85591113113M. Biolek1.85111151132WSep 22 · 17:30M. Biolek1.9181140R. Niezgoda1.801113113WSep 22 · 16:30R. Niezgoda2.201111113J. Szotkowski1.618560WSep 22 · 15:00R. Niezgoda1.911111123J. Dzida1.8085100
T. Zika10
WSep 29 · 16:30T. Zika1.8312115113O. Paril1.831091141LSep 29 · 15:00T. Zika2.634840M. Biolek1.441111113WSep 29 · 14:00R. Niezgoda1.611110721T. Zika2.2061211113LSep 28 · 09:30R. Revay1.901112113T. Zika1.8061060LSep 28 · 08:30T. Zika1.80116111082R. Revay1.91611912113WSep 28 · 07:00T. Zika2.10139114113J. Szotkowski1.67111171152WSep 28 · 06:00J. Pilch1.73761191T. Zika2.0011119113WSep 25 · 09:30T. Zika1.8091311113P. Wawrosz1.911111971WSep 24 · 17:30R. Niezgoda1.5581411762T. Zika2.301112511113LSep 24 · 15:30T. Zika2.3891181162R. Niezgoda1.53115116113
Upcoming Matches
R. Niezgoda
Nothing scheduled
T. Zika
Sep 29 · 18:30T. Zika1.80R. Revay1.91—Sep 29 · 19:00T. Zika2.10T. Dousek1.67—Sep 29 · 20:00T. Zika2.75J. Dzida1.40—Sep 30 · 14:30T. Zika1.61M. Navedla2.20—Sep 30 · 15:00T. Zika1.91J. Pilch1.80—Sep 30 · 16:00T. Zika2.10T. Dousek1.67—Sep 30 · 18:30T. Zika2.10T. Dousek1.67—Sep 30 · 19:30T. Zika1.80R. Revay1.91—Sep 30 · 20:30T. Zika2.63D. Opanasiuk1.44—
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