TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radovan Polasek vs Tadeas Zika 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111161111191012
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:54 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTadeas Zika to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadovan Polasek above · Tadeas Zika below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 1-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 87 set 5, 10-12 · our read held Tadeas Zika at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Polasek 89–93 Tadeas Zika Radovan Polasek has won 89 of their 182 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:5454.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zika
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
89-93 in 182
Zika
Correct
gap of 4 in 182, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polasek 1805 vs Zika 1773
Polasek
Wrong
both rated, 32 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polasek 40% vs Zika 20%
Polasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polasek 50% vs Zika 30%
Polasek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polasek -2 · Zika -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Zika) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zika form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolasek 1.909 / Zika 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zika)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222506
Polasek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 128 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back28% 36 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 71
Zika1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 83 of 149
Up 2–0, closes it100% 37 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it73% 58 of 79
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolasek3wins
AwayZika7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZika leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolasekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayZika87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polasek2Zika8n = 10Zika took 8 of 10
S2Polasek3Zika7n = 10Zika took 7 of 10
S3Polasek5Zika5n = 10split evenly
S4Polasek2Zika5n = 7Zika took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolasekZikaP − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match33.036.6−3.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolasekZikaBasisWin rate · lifetime477 / 942 vs 809 / 175650.6%46.1%477 / 942 vs 809 / 1756Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZikaPolasek 1.91/Zika 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Zika · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Zika won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 23 · 06:30R. Polasek32861171T. Zika3911116113
WSep 22 · 10:30R. Polasek4211128113T. Zika358101161
LSep 22 · 07:30R. Polasek33691171T. Zika3811115113
LSep 21 · 12:30R. Polasek2310760T. Zika341211113
WSep 18 · 08:58R. Polasek4071111113T. Zika28116561
WSep 18 · 07:30R. Polasek46119114113T. Zika4551191192
LSep 17 · 13:30R. Polasek246990T. Zika331111113
LSep 17 · 10:00R. Polasek351011591T. Zika3912511113
LSep 16 · 18:30R. Polasek258890T. Zika331111113
LSep 16 · 17:00R. Polasek30771151T. Zika4211119113
R. Polasek10
LOct 1 · 14:00T. Dousek1.8011113113R. Polasek1.91851131LSep 23 · 08:00R. Revay1.8311119113R. Polasek1.83971141WSep 23 · 07:00O. Paril1.75115141182R. Polasek1.95611164113LSep 23 · 06:30R. Polasek2.00861171T. Zika1.7311116113WSep 22 · 13:30J. Szotkowski1.551457101R. Polasek2.25121111123LSep 22 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.5711118113R. Polasek2.25891191WSep 22 · 11:00M. Vavrecka2.005650R. Polasek1.731111113WSep 22 · 10:30R. Polasek1.9111128113T. Zika1.808101161WSep 22 · 08:58M. Navedla2.10116114102R. Polasek1.67811811123LSep 22 · 08:00R. Polasek1.73114971M. Vavrecka2.0041111113
T. Zika10
LOct 1 · 14:30T. Zika1.831271161J. Pilch1.8314116113WOct 1 · 12:58P. Wawrosz1.67115561T. Zika2.1091111113LOct 1 · 12:30T. Zika1.8038110P. Wawrosz1.911111133LOct 1 · 11:00T. Zika1.9113915992O. Paril1.8011111311113LOct 1 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.571111113T. Zika2.259960LSep 30 · 20:59T. Zika1.8311129862R. Revay1.837101111113LSep 30 · 20:30D. Opanasiuk1.4411611113T. Zika2.63611271WSep 30 · 19:30T. Zika1.731313113R. Revay2.00111180WSep 23 · 06:30R. Polasek2.00861171T. Zika1.7311116113LSep 22 · 10:30R. Polasek1.9111128113T. Zika1.808101161
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