TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Tomas Dousek vs Radovan Polasek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118115311113––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:56 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Radovan Polasek below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 63 set 4, 11-3 · our read held Tomas Dousek at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Dousek 19–21 Radovan Polasek Tomas Dousek has won 19 of their 40 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:5654.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80
short by 1.6pp55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Dousek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
19-21 in 40
Polasek
Wrong
gap of 2 in 40, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dousek 1857 vs Polasek 1815
Dousek
Correct
both rated, 42 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dousek 60% vs Polasek 40%
Dousek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dousek 60% vs Polasek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dousek +1 · Polasek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dousek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Polasek form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDousek 1.80 / Polasek 1.909
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dousek)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222455
Dousek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 113 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it76% 83 of 110
Polasek1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 8 days ago (Sep 23) · back after a break
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 128 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back28% 36 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 71
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDousek6wins
AwayPolasek4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderDousek leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDousek80%4 of 5
AwayPolasek60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dousek5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S2Dousek5Polasek5n = 10split evenly
S3Dousek3Polasek7n = 10Polasek took 7 of 10
S4Dousek5Polasek4n = 9Dousek took 5 of 9
S5Dousek4Polasek1n = 5Dousek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDousekPolasekD − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.141.3+2.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDousekPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime265 / 499 vs 477 / 94153.1%50.7%265 / 499 vs 477 / 941Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DousekDousek 1.80/Polasek 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 20 · 20:30T. Dousek549101111133R. Polasek52111299112
WSep 16 · 21:03T. Dousek43111110113R. Polasek29361281
LSep 16 · 20:30T. Dousek47911111152R. Polasek47113139113
WSep 16 · 16:00T. Dousek5412111010113R. Polasek44102121282
WSep 10 · 16:30T. Dousek49711911113R. Polasek3611411642
WSep 6 · 20:00T. Dousek4511117163R. Polasek407811141
LSep 5 · 14:00T. Dousek399911101R. Polasek4111117123
LSep 4 · 12:59T. Dousek248880R. Polasek331111113
LSep 4 · 12:00T. Dousek371181081R. Polasek4391112113
WAug 31 · 07:30T. Dousek49118117123R. Polasek48711911102
T. Dousek10
WSep 30 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.65119117112T. Dousek2.10411611133LSep 30 · 20:00R. Revay1.6711511113T. Dousek2.10411571WSep 30 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.6111561182T. Dousek2.20511118113WSep 30 · 18:30T. Dousek1.67141011113T. Zika2.101212691LSep 30 · 17:30T. Dousek1.63116114102M. Navedla2.13611711123WSep 30 · 16:00T. Dousek1.61711118113T. Zika2.2011391192LSep 30 · 15:30M. Navedla2.38128115123T. Dousek1.531011511102WSep 30 · 14:00T. Dousek1.531211113J. Pilch2.3810660LSep 29 · 20:58R. Revay1.67101111113T. Dousek2.10125681WSep 29 · 20:30T. Dousek2.0091111113R. Revay1.73119851
R. Polasek10
LOct 1 · 15:00R. Polasek1.91511111102T. Zika1.80116119123LSep 23 · 08:00R. Revay1.8311119113R. Polasek1.83971141WSep 23 · 07:00O. Paril1.75115141182R. Polasek1.95611164113LSep 23 · 06:30R. Polasek2.00861171T. Zika1.7311116113WSep 22 · 13:30J. Szotkowski1.551457101R. Polasek2.25121111123LSep 22 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.5711118113R. Polasek2.25891191WSep 22 · 11:00M. Vavrecka2.005650R. Polasek1.731111113WSep 22 · 10:30R. Polasek1.9111128113T. Zika1.808101161WSep 22 · 08:58M. Navedla2.10116114102R. Polasek1.67811811123LSep 22 · 08:00R. Polasek1.73114971M. Vavrecka2.0041111113
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