TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radomir Revay vs Tomas Dousek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114511115117––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched: 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeRadomir Revay to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingRadomir Revay above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 65 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Radomir Revay at 56.2%
65 points played in total.
H2H Radomir Revay 10–6 Tomas Dousek Tomas Dousek has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:5256.2%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.8pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Revay
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Revay
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Revay 1828 vs Dousek 1857
Dousek
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Revay 40% vs Dousek 60%
Dousek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Revay 50% vs Dousek 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Revay -2 · Dousek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Revay) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRevay 1.666 / Dousek 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Revay)-3.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216861
Revay1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 77 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it97% 33 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it73% 52 of 71
Dousek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 38 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back32% 16 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRevay6wins
AwayDousek4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderRevay leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRevay75%3 of 4
AwayDousek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Revay4Dousek6n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S2Revay4Dousek6n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S3Revay7Dousek3n = 10Revay took 7 of 10
S4Revay4Dousek2n = 6Revay took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRevayDousekR − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.233.4+0.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRevayDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime324 / 621 vs 264 / 49752.2%53.1%324 / 621 vs 264 / 497Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
RevayRevay 1.67/Dousek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Revay · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Revay won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 20:58R. Revay43101111113T. Dousek31125681
LSep 29 · 20:30R. Revay33119851T. Dousek4291111113
WAug 14 · 10:30R. Revay4011612113T. Dousek378111081
WJul 29 · 11:30R. Revay4291111113T. Dousek32119661
LJun 26 · 11:00R. Revay2211740T. Dousek351311113
WJun 1 · 11:30R. Revay341111123T. Dousek2486100
WMay 31 · 10:00R. Revay331111113T. Dousek189270
LMay 24 · 12:00R. Revay31771161T. Dousek4111118113
LApr 3 · 16:30R. Revay2371150T. Dousek351113113
WMar 22 · 18:00R. Revay41341112113T. Dousek39111131042
R. Revay10
LSep 30 · 19:30T. Zika1.731313113R. Revay2.00111180LSep 30 · 18:00R. Revay1.731148101D. Opanasiuk2.0081111123WSep 29 · 20:58R. Revay1.67101111113T. Dousek2.10125681LSep 29 · 20:30T. Dousek2.0091111113R. Revay1.73119851WSep 29 · 19:30R. Revay2.15111211113J. Dzida1.55814961LSep 29 · 18:30T. Zika1.801810811123R. Revay1.911612118102WSep 28 · 09:30R. Revay1.901112113T. Zika1.8061060WSep 28 · 08:30T. Zika1.80116111082R. Revay1.91611912113LSep 28 · 07:30R. Revay1.50111111792J. Pilch2.50951311113WSep 28 · 06:30J. Szotkowski1.73119691R. Revay2.0091111113
T. Dousek10
WSep 30 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.6111561182T. Dousek2.20511118113WSep 30 · 18:30T. Dousek1.67141011113T. Zika2.101212691LSep 30 · 17:30T. Dousek1.63116114102M. Navedla2.13611711123WSep 30 · 16:00T. Dousek1.61711118113T. Zika2.2011391192LSep 30 · 15:30M. Navedla2.38128115123T. Dousek1.531011511102WSep 30 · 14:00T. Dousek1.531211113J. Pilch2.3810660LSep 29 · 20:58R. Revay1.67101111113T. Dousek2.10125681WSep 29 · 20:30T. Dousek2.0091111113R. Revay1.73119851LSep 29 · 19:00T. Dousek1.67712111272T. Zika2.101110914113LSep 29 · 18:00J. Dzida1.361111133T. Dousek3.0099110
Upcoming Matches
R. Revay
Nothing scheduled
T. Dousek
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