TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Ondrej Paril vs Jan Szotkowski 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111210711511––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:53 and never touched: 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJan Szotkowski to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Paril above · Jan Szotkowski below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 73 set 4, 5-11 · our read held Jan Szotkowski at 55.8%
73 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Paril 38–41 Jan Szotkowski Ondrej Paril has won 38 of their 79 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:5355.8%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.2pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Szotkowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
38-41 in 79
Szotkowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 79, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Paril 1887 vs Szotkowski 1890
Szotkowski
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Paril 40% vs Szotkowski 60%
Szotkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Paril 60% vs Szotkowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Paril +2 · Szotkowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Szotkowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsParil 2.10 / Szotkowski 1.666
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Szotkowski)-4.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243853
Paril2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog47% won 113 of 241
Down 0–1, comes back24% 32 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back8% 6 of 75
Szotkowski1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 145 of 268
Up 2–0, closes it94% 77 of 82
Up 1–0, closes it75% 116 of 154
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeParil4wins
AwaySzotkowski6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeParil66.7%2 of 3
AwaySzotkowski71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Paril3Szotkowski7n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10
S2Paril2Szotkowski8n = 10Szotkowski took 8 of 10
S3Paril6Szotkowski4n = 10Paril took 6 of 10
S4Paril5Szotkowski1n = 6Paril took 5 of 6
S5Paril2Szotkowski3n = 5Szotkowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricParilSzotkowskiP − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.338.2−0.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricParilSzotkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime510 / 980 vs 433 / 82652%52.4%510 / 980 vs 433 / 826Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.940.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
SzotkowskiParil 2.10/Szotkowski 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Szotkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szotkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 1 · 13:30O. Paril331111113J. Szotkowski196670
LOct 1 · 12:00O. Paril163760J. Szotkowski331111113
LSep 21 · 14:30O. Paril53911913112J. Szotkowski511151111133
WAug 31 · 21:30O. Paril462101111123J. Szotkowski50111298102
WAug 31 · 18:00O. Paril47771111113J. Szotkowski3811119342
LAug 27 · 13:00O. Paril217770J. Szotkowski331111113
WAug 27 · 12:00O. Paril4011711113J. Szotkowski28511661
LAug 25 · 12:00O. Paril4789111182J. Szotkowski49111179113
LAug 20 · 10:00O. Paril2351080J. Szotkowski341112113
LAug 11 · 11:30O. Paril47116111092J. Szotkowski47511812113
O. Paril10
WOct 5 · 15:30T. Zika1.831161191O. Paril1.8391113113WOct 5 · 14:00O. Paril2.251111113J. Dzida1.574850LOct 4 · 20:59J. Dzida1.67117811113O. Paril2.1081111862LOct 4 · 20:00J. Dzida1.6711811113O. Paril2.10411871LOct 4 · 19:00R. Niezgoda1.226111111113O. Paril4.0011137592LOct 4 · 18:30O. Paril2.508750D. Opanasiuk1.501111113WOct 4 · 17:30O. Paril1.8011211113R. Revay1.91711971WOct 4 · 16:30O. Paril3.251115113M. Biolek1.3381340WOct 4 · 15:00O. Paril1.91111187113R. Revay1.8019111142WOct 4 · 14:00D. Opanasiuk1.404670O. Paril2.751111113
J. Szotkowski10
WOct 5 · 15:00J. Dzida1.67491111112J. Szotkowski2.10111129133WOct 5 · 14:30J. Szotkowski1.5711811113T. Zika2.25711991LOct 1 · 17:03R. Niezgoda1.8011511113J. Szotkowski1.91911351WOct 1 · 16:30M. Biolek2.00711911112J. Szotkowski1.73116118133LOct 1 · 15:30J. Szotkowski2.005137151R. Niezgoda1.73111111173LOct 1 · 14:30J. Dzida1.731311123J. Szotkowski2.00116100LOct 1 · 13:30J. Szotkowski1.736670O. Paril2.001111113WOct 1 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.731111113O. Paril2.003760WOct 1 · 11:30P. Wawrosz2.7581171272J. Szotkowski1.401131110113WOct 1 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.571111113T. Zika2.259960
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