TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vavrecka vs Tomas Dousek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111012118116211
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:57 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Vavrecka above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 2-11
Point 89 set 5, 2-11 · our read held Tomas Dousek at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vavrecka 17–21 Tomas Dousek Michal Vavrecka has won 17 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5754.0%Our read54.6%to break even at 1.833
short by 0.6pp54.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.833 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Dousek
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
17-21 in 38
Dousek
Correct
gap of 4 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavrecka 1767 vs Dousek 1822
Dousek
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavrecka 40% vs Dousek 0%
Vavrecka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavrecka 40% vs Dousek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavrecka -2 · Dousek -5
Dousek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dousek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousek form (0%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavrecka 1.833 / Dousek 1.833
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Dousek)-0.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13254669
Vavrecka1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Dousek1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVavrecka6wins
AwayDousek4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVavrecka leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavrecka100%3 of 3
AwayDousek57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavrecka3Dousek7n = 10Dousek took 7 of 10
S2Vavrecka6Dousek4n = 10Vavrecka took 6 of 10
S3Vavrecka8Dousek2n = 10Vavrecka took 8 of 10
S4Vavrecka4Dousek3n = 7Vavrecka took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricVavreckaDousekV − DBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.435.3+2.1per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavreckaDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime938 / 1873 vs 265 / 50150.1%52.9%938 / 1873 vs 265 / 501Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.539.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DousekVavrecka 1.83/Dousek 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Dousek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 07:00M. Vavrecka41710111122T. Dousek48111286113
WOct 5 · 20:00M. Vavrecka4071111113T. Dousek29115761
WSep 7 · 20:30M. Vavrecka43101111113T. Dousek34129491
LSep 6 · 19:00M. Vavrecka32711681T. Dousek4211911113
WAug 31 · 09:00M. Vavrecka4817911113T. Dousek371511741
WAug 31 · 06:00M. Vavrecka331111113T. Dousek227780
LAug 26 · 13:30M. Vavrecka199640T. Dousek331111113
WAug 26 · 11:00M. Vavrecka521011119113T. Dousek4212841172
LAug 25 · 07:30M. Vavrecka337211131T. Dousek4311116153
WAug 24 · 12:30M. Vavrecka331111113T. Dousek237790
M. Vavrecka10
LOct 7 · 06:00T. Zika1.6111123113M. Vavrecka2.206101181LOct 5 · 21:30T. Zika1.61111189113M. Vavrecka2.2098111152WOct 5 · 20:00M. Vavrecka2.1071111113T. Dousek1.67115761LOct 5 · 19:30T. Zika1.801111113M. Vavrecka1.919880WOct 5 · 18:00M. Vavrecka1.831111113R. Revay1.836960LOct 4 · 21:00M. Vavrecka1.83103100P. Wawrosz1.831211123WOct 4 · 20:00P. Wawrosz1.91591191M. Vavrecka1.8011115113LOct 4 · 19:00M. Navedla2.25811126113M. Vavrecka1.57115101172LOct 4 · 18:30M. Vavrecka1.731111141092L. Prikasky2.00991612113WSep 25 · 21:30R. Revay1.837880M. Vavrecka1.831111113
T. Dousek10
LOct 7 · 06:30T. Dousek1.807101181R. Polasek1.9111127113LOct 5 · 21:00R. Revay1.73118312113T. Dousek2.00611111082LOct 5 · 20:00M. Vavrecka2.1071111113T. Dousek1.67115761LOct 5 · 19:00R. Revay1.7381111123T. Dousek2.001198101LOct 5 · 18:30T. Dousek1.6791161192T. Zika2.10117119113WOct 1 · 17:30J. Pilch2.206850T. Dousek1.601111113WOct 1 · 16:00T. Dousek1.67111111113T. Zika2.10138991LOct 1 · 15:30J. Pilch2.38111158113T. Dousek1.5379111172WOct 1 · 14:00T. Dousek1.8011113113R. Polasek1.91851131WSep 30 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.65119117112T. Dousek2.10411611133
Upcoming Matches
M. Vavrecka
T. Dousek
Nothing scheduled
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