TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jakub Pilch vs Tomas Dousek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 1Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117119511811117
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:18 and never touched: 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Pilch above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 91 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Tomas Dousek at 62.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Pilch 6–10 Tomas Dousek Jakub Pilch has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:1862.0%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 3.2pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dousek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Dousek
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pilch 1799 vs Dousek 1867
Dousek
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pilch 40% vs Dousek 80%
Dousek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pilch 30% vs Dousek 60%
Dousek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pilch +1 · Dousek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% · Clear lean (leans Dousek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPilch 2.375 / Dousek 1.533
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Dousek)-3.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13222547
Pilch2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog42% won 36 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back31% 15 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Dousek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 113 of 204
Up 2–0, closes it91% 50 of 55
Up 1–0, closes it76% 83 of 110
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePilch3wins
AwayDousek7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDousek leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePilch50%2 of 4
AwayDousek83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pilch4Dousek6n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S2Pilch5Dousek5n = 10split evenly
S3Pilch2Dousek7n = 9Dousek took 7 of 9
S4Pilch3Dousek3n = 6split evenly
S5Pilch1Dousek3n = 4Dousek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPilchDousekP − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.039.7−4.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPilchDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime231 / 458 vs 266 / 50050.4%53.2%231 / 458 vs 266 / 500Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.439.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DousekPilch 2.38/Dousek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Pilch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 30 · 14:00J. Pilch2210660T. Dousek341211113
LSep 20 · 16:00J. Pilch4011114862T. Dousek50891111113
LSep 7 · 10:00J. Pilch269980T. Dousek331111113
LJul 21 · 10:30J. Pilch23411441T. Dousek4211911113
LJun 12 · 10:00J. Pilch194780T. Dousek331111113
LFeb 23 · 11:30J. Pilch4511981162T. Dousek38411111113
WDec 29 · 14:01J. Pilch3961111113T. Dousek30114961
WDec 29 · 12:00J. Pilch50119118113T. Dousek4481151192
LDec 23 · 12:00J. Pilch51911121182T. Dousek53119148113
J. Pilch10
WOct 1 · 14:30T. Zika1.831271161J. Pilch1.8314116113LSep 30 · 17:11T. Zika1.441112113J. Pilch2.6331060WSep 30 · 16:30J. Pilch1.671111811113M. Navedla2.1091311992LSep 30 · 15:00J. Pilch1.80512381T. Zika1.91111011113LSep 30 · 14:00T. Dousek1.531211113J. Pilch2.3810660LSep 28 · 09:07J. Szotkowski1.201111113J. Pilch3.956940LSep 28 · 08:00J. Pilch2.504560J. Szotkowski1.501111113WSep 28 · 07:30R. Revay1.50111111792J. Pilch2.50951311113LSep 28 · 06:00J. Pilch1.73761191T. Zika2.0011119113LSep 27 · 16:58J. Pilch1.736780P. Wawrosz2.001111113
T. Dousek10
WOct 1 · 16:00T. Dousek1.67111111113T. Zika2.10138991WOct 1 · 14:00T. Dousek1.8011113113R. Polasek1.91851131WSep 30 · 21:30D. Opanasiuk1.65119117112T. Dousek2.10411611133LSep 30 · 20:00R. Revay1.6711511113T. Dousek2.10411571WSep 30 · 19:00D. Opanasiuk1.6111561182T. Dousek2.20511118113WSep 30 · 18:30T. Dousek1.67141011113T. Zika2.101212691LSep 30 · 17:30T. Dousek1.63116114102M. Navedla2.13611711123WSep 30 · 16:00T. Dousek1.61711118113T. Zika2.2011391192LSep 30 · 15:30M. Navedla2.38128115123T. Dousek1.531011511102WSep 30 · 14:00T. Dousek1.531211113J. Pilch2.3810660
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