TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Michal Vavrecka vs Libor Prikasky 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 4Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11911914161012911
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:29 and never touched: 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeMichal Vavrecka to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Vavrecka above · Libor Prikasky below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 14-16
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 112 set 5, 9-11 · our read held Michal Vavrecka at 55.7%
112 points played in total.
H2H Michal Vavrecka 9–4 Libor Prikasky Libor Prikasky has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:2955.7%Our read57.9%to break even at 1.727
short by 2.2pp57.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.727 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Vavrecka
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Vavrecka
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavrecka 1810 vs Prikasky 1751
Vavrecka
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavrecka 60% vs Prikasky 20%
Vavrecka
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavrecka 50% vs Prikasky 30%
Vavrecka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavrecka +1 · Prikasky -3
Prikasky
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% · Slight lean (leans Vavrecka) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Prikasky form (20%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavrecka 1.727 / Prikasky 2.00
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Vavrecka)-2.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13237836
Vavrecka1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 9 days ago (Sep 25) · back after a break
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 118 of 234
Up 2–0, closes it86% 51 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it74% 88 of 119
Prikasky2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 02)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 85 of 195
Down 0–1, comes back23% 25 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back8% 5 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVavrecka6wins
AwayPrikasky4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVavrecka leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavrecka71.4%5 of 7
AwayPrikasky66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavrecka7Prikasky3n = 10Vavrecka took 7 of 10
S2Vavrecka6Prikasky4n = 10Vavrecka took 6 of 10
S3Vavrecka7Prikasky3n = 10Vavrecka took 7 of 10
S4Vavrecka4Prikasky3n = 7Vavrecka took 4 of 7
S5Vavrecka1Prikasky3n = 4Prikasky took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVavreckaPrikaskyV − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.238.5+4.7per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavreckaPrikaskyBasisWin rate · lifetime969 / 1918 vs 268 / 48550.5%55.3%969 / 1918 vs 268 / 485Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VavreckaVavrecka 1.73/Prikasky 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.7%
Vavrecka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Prikasky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 16 · 20:30M. Vavrecka341111123L. Prikasky1835100
WSep 5 · 07:30M. Vavrecka351113113L. Prikasky2891180
WAug 26 · 12:00M. Vavrecka4111811113L. Prikasky33911671
LAug 9 · 10:30M. Vavrecka50136811122L. Prikasky561111119143
LAug 3 · 20:59M. Vavrecka4271161172L. Prikasky50119118113
LAug 3 · 19:00M. Vavrecka601111917122L. Prikasky60881119143
WJun 7 · 17:29M. Vavrecka581011179113L. Prikasky48124151162
WJun 7 · 16:30M. Vavrecka4011711113L. Prikasky30811561
LJun 1 · 06:30M. Vavrecka397131181L. Prikasky4311156113
WMay 31 · 20:30M. Vavrecka331111113L. Prikasky195590
M. Vavrecka10
LOct 4 · 19:00M. Navedla2.25811126113M. Vavrecka1.57115101172WSep 25 · 21:30R. Revay1.837880M. Vavrecka1.831111113LSep 25 · 20:00R. Revay1.83811128113M. Vavrecka1.83117101112WSep 25 · 19:00M. Navedla2.25810111172M. Vavrecka1.57111257113WSep 25 · 18:30M. Vavrecka2.0061111113M. Cabis1.73118781LSep 22 · 12:59T. Zika1.7311115113M. Vavrecka2.00961191LSep 22 · 12:30M. Vavrecka2.0031111762T. Zika1.73114211113LSep 22 · 11:00M. Vavrecka2.005650R. Polasek1.731111113WSep 22 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.50711101182M. Vavrecka2.50116127113LSep 22 · 09:30M. Vavrecka2.10711391T. Zika1.6511711113
L. Prikasky10
WOct 4 · 19:30L. Prikasky1.831311113P. Wawrosz1.8311690LOct 2 · 17:10L. Prikasky2.02812451M. Cabis1.70111011113LOct 2 · 16:30L. Prikasky2.0011119862M. Grundel1.73681111113LOct 2 · 15:00L. Prikasky1.8311881172P. Wawrosz1.83911118113WOct 2 · 14:00M. Cabis1.575111271L. Prikasky2.2511914113LSep 26 · 13:09M. Navedla1.50111111113L. Prikasky2.40791311LSep 26 · 12:00J. Pilch1.831111113L. Prikasky1.839670LSep 26 · 11:00D. Tomica2.639111113113L. Prikasky1.4411461582LSep 26 · 10:30L. Prikasky2.104450M. Navedla1.671111113WSep 20 · 17:29L. Prikasky1.401111123M. Zahradka2.7548100
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