TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jan Szotkowski vs Michal Vavrecka 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 22Finished
Jan Szotkowski
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111161012117811
Michal Vavrecka
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:05 and never touched — 57.1% is still 57.1%
Graded at full timeJan Szotkowski to win
57.1%
57.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Szotkowski above · Michal Vavrecka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jan Szotkowski at 57.1%
94 points played in total.
H2H Jan Szotkowski 13–11 Michal Vavrecka Michal Vavrecka has won 11 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Szotkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-11 in 24
Szotkowski
Wrong
gap of 2 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Szotkowski 1943 vs Vavrecka 1822
Szotkowski
Wrong
both rated, 120 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Szotkowski 80% vs Vavrecka 60%
Szotkowski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Szotkowski 70% vs Vavrecka 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Szotkowski -1 · Vavrecka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Szotkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vavrecka form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSzotkowski 1.50 / Vavrecka 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Szotkowski)+1.6pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13168841
Szotkowski1.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 135 of 248
Up 2–0, closes it94% 72 of 77
Up 1–0, closes it75% 107 of 143
Vavrecka2.50
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 144 of 325
Down 0–1, comes back25% 45 of 181
Down 0–2, comes back6% 5 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSzotkowski6wins
AwayVavrecka4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSzotkowski leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSzotkowski75%6 of 8
AwayVavreckan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Szotkowski8Vavrecka2n = 10Szotkowski took 8 of 10
S2Szotkowski7Vavrecka3n = 10Szotkowski took 7 of 10
S3Szotkowski4Vavrecka6n = 10Vavrecka took 6 of 10
S4Szotkowski3Vavrecka5n = 8Vavrecka took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSzotkowskiVavreckaS − VBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match39.535.5+4.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSzotkowskiVavreckaBasisWin rate · lifetime443 / 841 vs 987 / 195652.7%50.5%443 / 841 vs 987 / 1956Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.439.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzotkowskiSzotkowski 1.50/Vavrecka 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Szotkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Vavrecka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 15 · 11:30J. Szotkowski37811991M. Vavrecka4211911113
LSep 14 · 11:30J. Szotkowski31611591M. Vavrecka4111811113
WAug 10 · 15:00J. Szotkowski4216114113M. Vavrecka361451161
WJul 30 · 12:59J. Szotkowski331111113M. Vavrecka164840
WJul 30 · 12:30J. Szotkowski331111113M. Vavrecka122640
LJul 28 · 16:59J. Szotkowski371269101M. Vavrecka44101111123
WJul 28 · 16:30J. Szotkowski46111113113M. Vavrecka30451561
WJul 23 · 12:30J. Szotkowski3911116113M. Vavrecka36791191
LJul 21 · 10:30J. Szotkowski4711915572M. Vavrecka515111311113
WJun 23 · 17:30J. Szotkowski50117119123M. Vavrecka47711811102
J. Szotkowski10
LSep 21 · 17:28J. Szotkowski2.10691111132J. Dzida1.67111136153WSep 21 · 16:00J. Dzida1.6711851162J. Szotkowski2.10611116113WSep 21 · 15:00M. Biolek2.1099100J. Szotkowski1.671111123WSep 21 · 14:30J. Szotkowski1.731151111133O. Paril2.00911913112WSep 21 · 13:30T. Zika2.00711691J. Szotkowski1.7311811113LSep 21 · 12:00J. Szotkowski1.619111091R. Revay2.2011812113LSep 21 · 11:30T. Zika1.91118139113J. Szotkowski1.80711111172WSep 21 · 10:00J. Szotkowski1.57111111113R. Polasek2.25791361WSep 19 · 17:29J. Szotkowski1.731111113M. Biolek2.004840WSep 19 · 16:30T. Zika1.917121281J. Szotkowski1.80111410113
M. Vavrecka10
LSep 22 · 11:00M. Vavrecka2.005650R. Polasek1.731111113LSep 22 · 09:30M. Vavrecka2.10711391T. Zika1.6511711113WSep 22 · 08:00R. Polasek1.73114971M. Vavrecka2.0041111113WSep 22 · 07:00M. Navedla2.25991131M. Vavrecka1.5711117113WSep 22 · 06:30M. Vavrecka2.10111189113T. Zika1.6769111172LSep 19 · 21:30M. Vavrecka1.904116121P. Wawrosz1.8011511143WSep 19 · 20:00M. Vavrecka2.1011117113M. Cabis1.67981181WSep 19 · 19:30M. Navedla2.3881211942M. Vavrecka1.531110911113WSep 19 · 18:00M. Vavrecka1.80611411113P. Wawrosz1.9111811792LSep 16 · 21:30P. Wawrosz1.7311118113M. Vavrecka2.00661171
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