TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Radovan Polasek vs Martin Biolek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod
Played Oct 11Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
211111116117118
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:58 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeMartin Biolek to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRadovan Polasek above · Martin Biolek below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 79 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Martin Biolek at 61.2%
79 points played in total.
H2H Radovan Polasek 9–14 Martin Biolek Radovan Polasek has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5861.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Biolek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-14 in 23
Biolek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Polasek 1857 vs Biolek 1911
Biolek
Wrong
both rated, 54 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Polasek 80% vs Biolek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Polasek 80% vs Biolek 60%
Polasek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Polasek +1 · Biolek +4
Biolek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Biolek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Biolek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPolasek 2.375 / Biolek 1.533
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Biolek)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13273744
Polasek2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog48% won 125 of 258
Down 0–1, comes back28% 38 of 135
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 72
Biolek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 117 of 223
Up 2–0, closes it91% 57 of 63
Up 1–0, closes it72% 88 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePolasek3wins
AwayBiolek7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderBiolek leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePolasek33.3%1 of 3
AwayBiolek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Polasek3Biolek7n = 10Biolek took 7 of 10
S2Polasek4Biolek6n = 10Biolek took 6 of 10
S3Polasek4Biolek6n = 10Biolek took 6 of 10
S4Polasek3Biolek5n = 8Biolek took 5 of 8
S5Polasek3Biolek3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPolasekBiolekP − BBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.342.9−7.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPolasekBiolekBasisWin rate · lifetime491 / 967 vs 263 / 47550.8%55.4%491 / 967 vs 263 / 475Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
BiolekPolasek 2.38/Biolek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Biolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Polasek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 20 · 18:00R. Polasek186930M. Biolek331111113
LSep 10 · 16:59R. Polasek24611431M. Biolek4211911113
LSep 10 · 15:30R. Polasek41311111152M. Biolek50118137113
WSep 5 · 17:29R. Polasek45711115113M. Biolek3711671122
LSep 5 · 15:00R. Polasek3811441182M. Biolek46411119113
LAug 22 · 13:30R. Polasek3513111101M. Biolek4415611123
LAug 22 · 10:30R. Polasek481231210112M. Biolek5610111012133
WAug 9 · 16:30R. Polasek46491111113M. Biolek4411117872
WAug 3 · 14:00R. Polasek47119115113M. Biolek4481171172
LJun 15 · 18:30R. Polasek112630M. Biolek331111113
R. Polasek10
LOct 11 · 09:00R. Polasek2.00811261O. Paril1.7311311113WOct 11 · 07:30O. Paril1.736412111R. Polasek2.00111110133LOct 11 · 06:00R. Polasek2.505111161D. Opanasiuk1.5011913113WOct 9 · 09:28R. Polasek1.731111113P. Wawrosz2.005760WOct 9 · 08:30P. Wawrosz2.00651171R. Polasek1.7311119113WOct 9 · 07:30R. Polasek1.731111113R. Revay2.006770WOct 9 · 06:30T. Zika1.807411111R. Polasek1.9111118133WOct 8 · 09:00R. Polasek1.671111113M. Vavrecka2.104590WOct 8 · 08:30P. Wawrosz2.00711861R. Polasek1.7311511113LOct 8 · 07:30R. Polasek1.919330O. Paril1.801111113
M. Biolek10
WOct 11 · 09:30M. Biolek1.6315311113D. Opanasiuk2.151311881WOct 11 · 07:00D. Opanasiuk2.00991171M. Biolek1.7311115113WOct 11 · 06:30M. Biolek1.83111169113O. Paril1.8387111142WOct 10 · 13:30M. Biolek1.5714411113T. Dousek2.251211891WOct 10 · 12:00M. Biolek1.441111113T. Zika2.634960LOct 10 · 11:30T. Dousek2.381112118113M. Biolek1.5351461152WOct 10 · 10:00M. Biolek1.801111113D. Opanasiuk1.916830WOct 8 · 17:13T. Zika1.531511671M. Biolek2.38131311113LOct 8 · 16:00M. Biolek1.8391191192J. Szotkowski1.83118116113LOct 8 · 15:30T. Zika2.751111123M. Biolek1.4088100
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