TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Matyas Navedla vs Tadeas Zika 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116119811911119
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched: 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeTadeas Zika to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Tadeas Zika @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingMatyas Navedla above · Tadeas Zika below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 96 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Tadeas Zika at 58.5%
96 points played in total.
H2H Matyas Navedla 33–39 Tadeas Zika Matyas Navedla has won 33 of their 72 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 15:3758.5%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.4pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zika
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
33-39 in 72
Zika
Wrong
gap of 6 in 72, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Navedla 1751 vs Zika 1824
Zika
Wrong
both rated, 73 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Navedla 40% vs Zika 20%
Navedla
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Navedla 50% vs Zika 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Navedla -2 · Zika +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Zika) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zika form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNavedla 2.20 / Zika 1.615
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Zika)-3.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269494
Navedla2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest56%takes the first set · 5 of 9
As underdog42% won 132 of 317
Down 0–1, comes back28% 45 of 163
Down 0–2, comes back13% 10 of 77
Zika1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 90 of 159
Up 2–0, closes it100% 43 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it74% 66 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNavedla4wins
AwayZika6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderZika leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNavedla50%2 of 4
AwayZika66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Navedla4Zika6n = 10Zika took 6 of 10
S2Navedla6Zika4n = 10Navedla took 6 of 10
S3Navedla3Zika7n = 10Zika took 7 of 10
S4Navedla2Zika4n = 6Zika took 4 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricNavedlaZikaN − ZBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.736.2−2.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNavedlaZikaBasisWin rate · lifetime393 / 833 vs 820 / 176647.2%46.4%393 / 833 vs 820 / 1766Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ZikaNavedla 2.20/Zika 1.61
Miss
What we said
58.5%
Zika · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Tadeas Zika @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
3–2
Navedla won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 25 · 07:30M. Navedla227780T. Zika331111113
LSep 23 · 12:30M. Navedla228950T. Zika331111113
LSep 22 · 08:30M. Navedla321110561T. Zika4281211113
LAug 12 · 09:30M. Navedla28311771T. Zika3811511113
LAug 12 · 08:30M. Navedla3510114101T. Zika4012511123
WAug 11 · 11:30M. Navedla351311113T. Zika2311930
WAug 5 · 07:30M. Navedla4271113113T. Zika381181181
LJul 29 · 06:00M. Navedla31118661T. Zika4291111113
WJul 28 · 14:30M. Navedla541211911113T. Zika4714811772
WJul 20 · 20:58M. Navedla361112133T. Zika26510110
M. Navedla10
LOct 10 · 15:30T. Dousek1.501111123M. Navedla2.5065100LOct 10 · 14:00M. Navedla1.8391161182P. Wawrosz1.83118117113WOct 9 · 20:58M. Navedla1.671111113L. Prikasky2.106990WOct 9 · 20:30M. Navedla1.6711118133L. Prikasky2.109911111LOct 9 · 19:00M. Navedla2.251114671M. Cabis1.5791611113LOct 9 · 18:00P. Wawrosz1.8311116113M. Navedla1.83971171LOct 9 · 17:30M. Navedla2.15315771M. Cabis1.62111311113WOct 9 · 16:30M. Cabis1.5711118572M. Navedla2.25291111113WOct 9 · 15:30M. Navedla1.671111810113L. Prikasky2.1092111292WOct 9 · 14:30D. Tomica1.617117101M. Navedla2.2011911123
T. Zika10
WOct 10 · 15:00P. Wawrosz1.8011511782T. Zika1.91711811113LOct 10 · 14:30T. Zika2.2587111132T. Dousek1.57111185113LOct 10 · 13:01D. Opanasiuk1.28111186113T. Zika3.5083111172LOct 10 · 12:00M. Biolek1.441111113T. Zika2.634960LOct 10 · 11:00D. Opanasiuk1.441111123T. Zika2.6376100WOct 10 · 10:30T. Zika2.201213113T. Dousek1.61101140WOct 9 · 08:59T. Zika1.571191411113R. Revay2.2591116372WOct 9 · 08:00R. Revay2.00981191T. Zika1.7311116113LOct 9 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.911111113T. Zika1.809870LOct 9 · 06:30T. Zika1.807411111R. Polasek1.9111118133
Upcoming Matches
M. Navedla
Nothing scheduled
T. Zika
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