TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Wawrosz vs Tomas Dousek 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
112115411117––
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:24 and never touched: 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeTomas Dousek to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Wawrosz above · Tomas Dousek below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 62 set 4, 11-7 · our read held Tomas Dousek at 61.2%
62 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Wawrosz 7–10 Tomas Dousek Pavel Wawrosz has won 7 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 16:2461.2%Our read65.2%to break even at 1.533
short by 4.0pp65.2% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.533 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dousek
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
7-10 in 17
Dousek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wawrosz 1797 vs Dousek 1826
Dousek
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wawrosz 60% vs Dousek 80%
Dousek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wawrosz 60% vs Dousek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wawrosz -1 · Dousek +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% · Slight lean (leans Dousek) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dousek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWawrosz 2.375 / Dousek 1.533
Signal prob.39% / 61%
Edge (Dousek)-4.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13269609
Wawrosz2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 58 of 117
Down 0–1, comes back30% 16 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 28
Dousek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest44%takes the first set · 4 of 9
As favourite55% won 118 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it91% 53 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it75% 86 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWawrosz4wins
AwayDousek6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDousek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWawrosz25%1 of 4
AwayDousek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wawrosz4Dousek6n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10
S2Wawrosz3Dousek7n = 10Dousek took 7 of 10
S3Wawrosz3Dousek7n = 10Dousek took 7 of 10
S4Wawrosz3Dousek4n = 7Dousek took 4 of 7
S5Wawrosz3Dousek1n = 4Wawrosz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricWawroszDousekW − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.641.2−4.6per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWawroszDousekBasisWin rate · lifetime249 / 495 vs 269 / 51150.3%52.6%249 / 495 vs 269 / 511Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
DousekWawrosz 2.38/Dousek 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.2%
Dousek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wawrosz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LOct 7 · 12:00P. Wawrosz2164110T. Dousek351111133
LSep 7 · 12:00P. Wawrosz34117881T. Dousek4071111113
WSep 6 · 21:30P. Wawrosz43101111113T. Dousek30127921
WSep 6 · 18:30P. Wawrosz474101111113T. Dousek4711127982
LAug 26 · 20:30P. Wawrosz321110741T. Dousek4391211113
LAug 25 · 06:00P. Wawrosz29101270T. Dousek371214113
WAug 24 · 06:00P. Wawrosz481141111113T. Dousek4651113982
LAug 17 · 16:58P. Wawrosz4011114862T. Dousek50981111113
LAug 17 · 16:30P. Wawrosz208750T. Dousek331111113
WAug 8 · 17:00P. Wawrosz521111116133T. Dousek51139711112
P. Wawrosz10
WOct 10 · 17:30P. Wawrosz2.2511411113T. Dousek1.57711931LOct 10 · 15:00P. Wawrosz1.8011511782T. Zika1.91711811113WOct 10 · 14:00M. Navedla1.8391161182P. Wawrosz1.83118117113WOct 9 · 21:30M. Cabis1.60781181P. Wawrosz2.2011114113LOct 9 · 20:00P. Wawrosz2.003660M. Cabis1.731111113WOct 9 · 19:30L. Prikasky1.8091111282P. Wawrosz1.91118811113WOct 9 · 18:00P. Wawrosz1.8311116113M. Navedla1.83971171LOct 9 · 09:28R. Polasek1.731111113P. Wawrosz2.005760LOct 9 · 08:30P. Wawrosz2.00651171R. Polasek1.7311119113WOct 9 · 07:00P. Wawrosz1.911111113T. Zika1.809870
T. Dousek10
LOct 10 · 17:30P. Wawrosz2.2511411113T. Dousek1.57711931WOct 10 · 15:30T. Dousek1.501111123M. Navedla2.5065100WOct 10 · 14:30T. Zika2.2587111132T. Dousek1.57111185113LOct 10 · 13:30M. Biolek1.5714411113T. Dousek2.251211891WOct 10 · 12:30D. Opanasiuk1.7371113101T. Dousek2.0011715123WOct 10 · 11:30T. Dousek2.381112118113M. Biolek1.5351461152LOct 10 · 10:30T. Zika2.201213113T. Dousek1.61101140LOct 7 · 13:30T. Dousek1.851061121T. Zika1.8512117113WOct 7 · 12:00T. Dousek1.571111133P. Wawrosz2.2564110LOct 7 · 11:30T. Zika2.2511116113T. Dousek1.57871171
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