Tomas Dousek vs Radovan Polasek 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava

Played Oct 12Finished

Tomas Dousek

Home

1.80

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

5–5Last 10Lost last 2

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

1113911119711––

Radovan Polasek

Away

1.91

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

8–2Last 10Lost last 1

The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:21 and never touched: 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Tomas Dousek to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingTomas Dousek above · Radovan Polasek below

Set 1 · 11-13

Set 2 · 9-11

Set 3 · 11-9

Set 4 · 7-11

Point 82 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Tomas Dousek at 54.0%

82 points played in total.

H2H Tomas Dousek 20–22 Radovan Polasek Tomas Dousek has won 20 of their 42 meetings.

Last 10 · 6–4SplitHead to head

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One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Dousek

Dousek 1.80/Polasek 1.91

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

54%

Dousek · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Polasek won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 18:21

54.0%Our read55.6%to break even at 1.80

short by 1.6pp

55.6% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.80 they are the same number)

What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.80 (51%)

Dousek

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

20-22 in 42

Polasek

Correct

gap of 2 in 42, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Dousek 1804 vs Polasek 1856

Polasek

Correct

both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Dousek 40% vs Polasek 60%

Polasek

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Dousek 50% vs Polasek 80%

Polasek

Correct

30pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Streak

Dousek -2 · Polasek -1

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

1 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 54% · Coin-flip (leans Dousek) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Dousek: form 40%, the price implies 56%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsDousek 1.80 / Polasek 1.909

Signal prob.54% / 46%

Edge (Dousek)-1.6pp (anti-value)

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeDousek6wins

AwayPolasek4wins

4 of 10 to a deciderDousek leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeDousek100%4 of 4

AwayPolasek66.7%4 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Dousek4Polasek6n = 10Polasek took 6 of 10

S2Dousek6Polasek4n = 10Dousek took 6 of 10

S3Dousek3Polasek7n = 10Polasek took 7 of 10

S4Dousek6Polasek3n = 9Dousek took 6 of 9

S5Dousek3Polasek1n = 4Dousek took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home00%

3–1Four sets, home330%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away220%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricDousekPolasekD − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.739.0+3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricDousekPolasekBasisWin rate · lifetime268 / 511 vs 492 / 96952.5%50.8%268 / 511 vs 492 / 969Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.4per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13278492

Dousek1.80

50%won 5 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 2 days ago (Oct 10)

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite54% won 119 of 219

Up 2–0, closes it92% 55 of 60

Up 1–0, closes it75% 87 of 116

Polasek1.91

80%won 8 of 10 · last 10

Last match: 1 day ago (Oct 11)

oldest → newest

70%takes the first set · 7 of 10

As underdog48% won 125 of 260

Down 0–1, comes back28% 38 of 137

Down 0–2, comes back11% 8 of 73

Tomas Dousek vs Radovan Polasek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro

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Match Winner

Decision Summary

Tomas Dousek vs Radovan Polasek 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.