Alexandr Virag vs Jiri Stach 1-3

TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro

Czech Liga ProA18 · Ostrava

Played Oct 12Finished

Alexandr Virag

Home

1.44

At publish

Lost last 1

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 1

Final

1 – 3

Set by set

1185115111113––

Jiri Stach

Away

2.63

At publish

Lost last 2

Form at publish

3–7Last 10Lost last 2

The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:24 and never touched: 68.9% is still 68.9%

Graded at full time

Alexandr Virag to win

68.9%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingAlexandr Virag above · Jiri Stach below

Set 1 · 11-8

Set 2 · 5-11

Set 3 · 5-11

Set 4 · 11-13

Point 75 set 4, 11-13 · our read held Alexandr Virag at 68.9%

75 points played in total.

H2H Alexandr Virag 6–2 Jiri Stach Jiri Stach has won 2 of their 8 meetings.

Last 8 · 6–2Same sideHead to head

Deep Dive by Market

One tab per market

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction

Match Winner

Virag

Virag 1.44/Stach 2.63

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

68.9%

Virag · sealed before the serve

What happened

1–3

Stach won

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 11:24

68.9%Our read69.3%to break even at 1.444

short by 0.4pp

69.3% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.444 they are the same number)

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.44 (65%)

Virag

Wrong

no bar to clear: a priced side always votes

H2H

6-2 in 8

Virag

Wrong

gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Virag 1379 vs Stach 1302

Virag

Wrong

both rated, 78 points apart, no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Virag 40% vs Stach 60%

Stach

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Virag 40% vs Stach 30%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Virag -1 · Stach -2

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 69% · Clear lean (leans Virag) · sealed before the serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Stach: form 60%, the price implies 38%

Market vs Signals

Market oddsVirag 1.444 / Stach 2.625

Signal prob.69% / 31%

Edge (Virag)-0.4pp

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 8 meetings

HomeVirag6wins

AwayStach2wins

3 of 8 to a deciderVirag leads 6–2, and 3 of those 8 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeVirag75%6 of 8

AwayStachn = 0, below the 3 needed

Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Virag8Stach0n = 8Virag took 8 of 8

S2Virag3Stach5n = 8Stach took 5 of 8

S3Virag6Stach2n = 8Virag took 6 of 8

S4Virag4Stach2n = 6Virag took 4 of 6

S5Virag1Stach2n = 3Stach took 2 of 3

How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8. A scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home225%

3–1Four sets, home338%

3–2Decider, home113%

2–3Decider, away225%

1–3Four sets, away00%

0–3Straight, away00%

These 8 meetings

MetricViragStachV − SBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set80+8of 8Avg pointsper match42.937.1+5.8per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricViragStachBasisWin rate · lifetime150 / 308 vs 141 / 31048.7%45.5%150 / 308 vs 141 / 310Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.4per match

Czech Liga Pro · #13280448

Virag1.44

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite66% won 50 of 76

Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18

Up 1–0, closes it70% 28 of 40

Stach2.63

30%won 3 of 10 · last 10

Last match: today

Lost last 2

oldest → newest

30%takes the first set · 3 of 10

As underdog34% won 31 of 91

Down 0–1, comes back25% 13 of 52

Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 28

Alexandr Virag vs Jiri Stach 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Alexandr Virag vs Jiri Stach 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro

Deep Dive by Market

Match Winner

Decision Summary

Today's matches are already sealed.