TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Stach vs Dalibor Kolek 2-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
7111210118511511
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:22 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Stach to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Stach above · Dalibor Kolek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 91 set 5, 5-11 · our read held Jiri Stach at 57.0%
91 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Stach 5–1 Dalibor Kolek Dalibor Kolek has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:2257.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stach
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Stach
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stach 1311 vs Kolek 1304
Stach
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stach 20% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stach 30% vs Kolek 50%
Kolek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stach -4 · Kolek -1
Stach
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Stach) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStach 1.666 / Kolek 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Stach)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13216920
Stach1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 39 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Kolek2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 4 of 15
Down 0–1, comes back10% 1 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeStach5wins
AwayKolek1wins
2 of 6 to a deciderStach leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStach100%4 of 4
AwayKolekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stach4Kolek2n = 6Stach took 4 of 6
S2Stach3Kolek3n = 6split evenly
S3Stach2Kolek4n = 6Kolek took 4 of 6
S4Stach4Kolek1n = 5Stach took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricStachKolekS − KBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match41.536.5+5.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStachKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 318 vs 14 / 3844.7%36.8%142 / 318 vs 14 / 38Avg sets wonper match1.91.6per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StachStach 1.67/Kolek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WJun 29 · 14:30J. Stach51671116113D. Kolek47111151462
WFeb 26 · 11:30J. Stach4811119173D. Kolek449911151
LJan 22 · 14:00J. Stach2410590D. Kolek341211113
WJan 22 · 12:00J. Stach45113119113D. Kolek3861161142
WDec 6 · 14:02J. Stach4011117113D. Kolek31771161
WDec 6 · 13:00J. Stach4111118113D. Kolek25461141
J. Stach10
LSep 30 · 13:10E. Sionkala1.83101111113J. Stach1.83126601LSep 30 · 11:00J. Stach2.381194141E. Sionkala1.5371111163LSep 30 · 10:00P. Varecha2.10121110113J. Stach1.671081291LSep 28 · 09:30J. Stach1.43119111072M. Kolek2.60511712113LSep 28 · 08:30A. Virag1.5011411113J. Stach2.50511491WSep 28 · 07:30J. Stach2.2011311113T. Kraninger1.61711991WSep 28 · 06:30M. Kolek2.105780J. Stach1.671111113LSep 22 · 13:30A. Virag1.5711911113J. Stach2.25611571LSep 22 · 12:00J. Stach1.61101291172D. Tyn2.201210117113WSep 22 · 11:30A. Schneeberger2.759980J. Stach1.401111113
D. Kolek10
LSep 30 · 13:30P. Varecha1.4891111113D. Kolek2.45117791LSep 30 · 11:30D. Kolek2.25115981P. Varecha1.5741111113WSep 30 · 10:30E. Sionkala1.44119811102D. Kolek2.63811119123WSep 12 · 12:58A. Schneeberger1.50111191252D. Kolek2.50971114113LSep 12 · 12:30A. Schneeberger1.67111111113D. Kolek2.10139841WSep 12 · 11:30D. Kolek2.63111148113R. Kvasnicka1.4499111172LSep 12 · 10:30D. Priesol1.73411116113D. Kolek2.0011641132LAug 28 · 21:28J. Peter1.331611113D. Kolek3.2514690LAug 28 · 20:00J. Peter1.571211113D. Kolek2.2510640WAug 28 · 19:00Z. Zientek1.9111980D. Kolek1.801311113
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