TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Varecha vs Jiri Stach 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 30Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101181012119––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:54 and never touched: 54.6% is still 54.6%
Graded at full timeJiri Stach to win
54.6%
54.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingPavel Varecha above · Jiri Stach below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 83 set 4, 11-9 · our read held Jiri Stach at 54.6%
83 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Varecha 1–6 Jiri Stach Pavel Varecha has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:5454.6%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 5.4pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stach
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Stach
Wrong
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecha 1383 vs Stach 1331
Varecha
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecha 80% vs Stach 40%
Varecha
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecha 50% vs Stach 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecha +4 · Stach -2
Varecha
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Coin-flip (leans Stach) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stach form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecha 2.10 / Stach 1.666
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Stach)-5.4pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13215469
Varecha2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 1 day ago (Sep 29)
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 31 of 80
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back11% 3 of 28
Stach1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 2 days ago (Sep 28)
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 39 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it91% 31 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVarecha1wins
AwayStach6wins
2 of 7 to a deciderStach leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarecha25%1 of 4
AwayStach100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecha4Stach3n = 7Varecha took 4 of 7
S2Varecha2Stach5n = 7Stach took 5 of 7
S3Varecha3Stach4n = 7Stach took 4 of 7
S4Varecha1Stach4n = 5Stach took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricVarechaStachV − SBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match35.641.4−5.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarechaStachBasisWin rate · lifetime111 / 231 vs 142 / 31648.1%44.9%111 / 231 vs 142 / 316Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StachVarecha 2.10/Stach 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.6%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Varecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 14 · 11:00P. Varecha52115137162J. Stach587111111183
LSep 11 · 08:59P. Varecha4211931182J. Stach45611116113
LSep 11 · 08:30P. Varecha398141071J. Stach46111212113
LSep 1 · 08:30P. Varecha26114471J. Stach4291111113
LAug 25 · 10:30P. Varecha2691070J. Stach341112113
WJul 31 · 07:00P. Varecha341111123J. Stach2358100
LSep 26 · 06:00P. Varecha30781141J. Stach4211119113
P. Varecha10
WSep 30 · 11:30D. Kolek2.25115981P. Varecha1.5741111113WSep 29 · 09:30P. Varecha1.251181211113A. Virag3.7581114992WSep 29 · 08:00P. Varecha1.301111113A. Virag3.405450WSep 29 · 07:30Z. Zientek1.911312981P. Varecha1.80111411113WSep 29 · 06:00P. Varecha1.531111113D. Mikula2.385540LSep 21 · 12:58I. Taichman1.5711139113P. Varecha2.255111191LSep 21 · 12:30F. Zurek1.5011711113P. Varecha2.50911381LSep 21 · 11:30P. Varecha2.757260M. Koral1.401111113LSep 21 · 10:30I. Taichman1.831212113P. Varecha1.83101090WSep 17 · 08:58M. Kolek1.7310114141P. Varecha2.0012411163
J. Stach10
LSep 30 · 11:00J. Stach2.381194141E. Sionkala1.5371111163LSep 28 · 09:30J. Stach1.43119111072M. Kolek2.60511712113LSep 28 · 08:30A. Virag1.5011411113J. Stach2.50511491WSep 28 · 07:30J. Stach2.2011311113T. Kraninger1.61711991WSep 28 · 06:30M. Kolek2.105780J. Stach1.671111113LSep 22 · 13:30A. Virag1.5711911113J. Stach2.25611571LSep 22 · 12:00J. Stach1.61101291172D. Tyn2.201210117113WSep 22 · 11:30A. Schneeberger2.759980J. Stach1.401111113LSep 22 · 10:00J. Stach2.3891691582A. Virag1.5311141113113LSep 21 · 09:30Z. Zientek3.0012128113J. Stach1.3610101191
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.