TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Sep 21Finished
Zbynek Zientek
Home
3.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101210811119––
Jiri Stach
Away
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:04 and never touched — 60.4% is still 60.4%
Graded at full timeJiri Stach to win
60.4%
60.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingZbynek Zientek above · Jiri Stach below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 83 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jiri Stach at 60.4%
83 points played in total.
H2H Zbynek Zientek 3–6 Jiri Stach Zbynek Zientek has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Zientek beat Stach 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:04What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Stach
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Stach
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zientek 1316 vs Stach 1340
Stach
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zientek 60% vs Stach 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zientek 40% vs Stach 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zientek +1 · Stach +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Stach) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stach form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZientek 3.00 / Stach 1.36
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Stach)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13168557
Zientek3.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog49% won 84 of 172
Down 0–1, comes back33% 32 of 98
Down 0–2, comes back19% 10 of 53
Stach1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite61% won 36 of 59
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeZientek3wins
AwayStach6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderStach leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZientek66.7%2 of 3
AwayStach83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zientek3Stach6n = 9Stach took 6 of 9
S2Zientek3Stach6n = 9Stach took 6 of 9
S3Zientek3Stach6n = 9Stach took 6 of 9
S4Zientek1Stach2n = 3Stach took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away556%
These 9 meetings
MetricZientekStachZ − SBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match29.435.7−6.3per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZientekStachBasisWin rate · lifetime198 / 407 vs 146 / 31848.7%45.9%198 / 407 vs 146 / 318Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StachZientek 3.00/Stach 1.36
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
70.8%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zientek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 21 · 09:30Z. Zientek4312128113J. Stach4010101191
WSep 21 · 06:30Z. Zientek341211113J. Stach1910180
LJul 3 · 06:00Z. Zientek29127100J. Stach371411123
LJun 29 · 15:00Z. Zientek183960J. Stach331111113
LJun 19 · 09:30Z. Zientek188370J. Stach331111113
LJun 19 · 08:00Z. Zientek42117111032J. Stach46611612113
LFeb 12 · 09:58Z. Zientek219390J. Stach331111113
LFeb 12 · 09:30Z. Zientek152580J. Stach331111113
WJan 28 · 12:00Z. Zientek45411118113J. Stach4711971192
Z. Zientek10
WSep 21 · 08:30P. Kalvar1.8381112892Z. Zientek1.831171011113LSep 21 · 07:30Z. Zientek1.831210613112M. Kolek1.8310121111133WSep 21 · 06:30J. Stach1.2510180Z. Zientek3.751211113WSep 19 · 21:15A. Schneeberger4.33881191Z. Zientek1.2011119113LSep 19 · 20:30A. Schneeberger1.6111811113Z. Zientek2.20911941LSep 19 · 19:30Z. Zientek2.382911101R. Kvasnicka1.5311119123LSep 19 · 18:30D. Mikula1.4011138113Z. Zientek2.758111141LSep 16 · 13:30A. Schneeberger1.65118129113Z. Zientek2.10711101152WSep 16 · 12:30Z. Balusek1.73118791Z. Zientek2.0081111113LSep 16 · 11:30Z. Zientek2.2511411672V. Kocian1.57711811113
J. Stach10
WSep 21 · 08:00M. Kolek1.737830J. Stach2.001111113WSep 21 · 07:00P. Kalvar1.9112890J. Stach1.801411113LSep 21 · 06:30J. Stach1.2510180Z. Zientek3.751211113WSep 15 · 20:58M. Kolek1.61118111132J. Stach2.20131164113LSep 15 · 20:00M. Kolek1.83121112113J. Stach1.831031471LSep 15 · 19:00M. Jasek1.731111113J. Stach2.008590LSep 15 · 18:30J. Stach1.73351181J. Peter2.0011116113LSep 14 · 13:00J. Stach2.204280I. Taichman1.611111113LSep 14 · 12:00I. Taichman1.441111113J. Stach2.634060WSep 14 · 11:00P. Varecha2.20115137162J. Stach1.617111111183
Upcoming Matches
Z. Zientek
Nothing scheduled
J. Stach
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