TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
David Mikula vs Alexandr Virag 3-1 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210511117118––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:23 and never touched: 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeAlexandr Virag to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
WrongSent to Pro: Alexandr Virag @ 1.61 · Lost
How it is goingDavid Mikula above · Alexandr Virag below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 · our read held Alexandr Virag at 60.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H David Mikula 4–3 Alexandr Virag Alexandr Virag has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:2360.1%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 1.8pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Virag
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mikula 1344 vs Virag 1430
Virag
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mikula 60% vs Virag 80%
Virag
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mikula 40% vs Virag 70%
Virag
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mikula -2 · Virag +4
Virag
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent, and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 60% · Slight lean (leans Virag) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Virag form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMikula 2.20 / Virag 1.615
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Virag)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13254474
Mikula2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog32% won 21 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back17% 7 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Virag1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 48 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it69% 27 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMikula4wins
AwayVirag3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderMikula leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMikula75%3 of 4
AwayVirag66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mikula4Virag3n = 7Mikula took 4 of 7
S2Mikula5Virag2n = 7Mikula took 5 of 7
S3Mikula3Virag4n = 7Virag took 4 of 7
S4Mikula0Virag3n = 3Virag took 3 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricMikulaViragM − VBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match33.531.7+1.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMikulaViragBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 353 vs 148 / 30047%49.3%166 / 353 vs 148 / 300Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ViragMikula 2.20/Virag 1.61
Miss
What we said
60.1%
Virag · sealed before the serve
Sent to Pro: Alexandr Virag @ 1.61 · Lost
What happened
3–1
Mikula won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 29 · 07:00D. Mikula228950A. Virag331111113
WMar 4 · 18:00D. Mikula50111198113A. Virag4688111182
LMar 4 · 16:00D. Mikula197570A. Virag331111113
WNov 8 · 07:30D. Mikula43511115113A. Virag4411951182
WOct 29 · 18:04D. Mikula331111113A. Virag165830
WOct 29 · 15:00D. Mikula341112113A. Virag1841040
D. Mikula10
LOct 7 · 06:00P. Varecha1.531311113D. Mikula2.3811680LOct 2 · 09:30D. Mikula1.539311111Z. Zientek2.3811118133WOct 2 · 08:30D. Mikula1.53116114113Z. Zientek2.3871191172WOct 2 · 07:00D. Mikula2.50119117113M. Kolek1.5091161172WOct 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.40281191D. Mikula2.7511117113WSep 29 · 08:59Z. Zientek2.2071181192D. Mikula1.61117118113LSep 29 · 08:30D. Mikula1.406850Z. Zientek2.751111113LSep 29 · 07:00D. Mikula1.808950A. Virag1.911111113LSep 29 · 06:00P. Varecha1.531111113D. Mikula2.385540LSep 19 · 21:30D. Mikula1.83137981R. Kvasnicka1.83111111113
A. Virag10
WOct 7 · 06:30A. Virag1.5011116113Z. Zientek2.50741161WOct 3 · 09:30R. Kvasnicka1.4396111142A. Virag2.60111187113WOct 3 · 08:30A. Virag1.3612211113A. Schneeberger3.001011781WOct 3 · 07:00A. Virag1.671051111113M. Kolek2.1012114672LOct 3 · 06:00R. Kvasnicka1.801111113A. Virag1.917880LSep 29 · 09:30P. Varecha1.251181211113A. Virag3.7581114992LSep 29 · 08:00P. Varecha1.301111113A. Virag3.405450WSep 29 · 07:00D. Mikula1.808950A. Virag1.911111113WSep 29 · 06:30A. Virag1.50612211133Z. Zientek2.501110119112WSep 28 · 09:00T. Kraninger1.5321191192A. Virag2.38119118113
Upcoming Matches
D. Mikula
A. Virag
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