TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Alexandr Virag vs Matyas Kolek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 3Finished
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1012511114116117
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:59 and never touched: 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeAlexandr Virag to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingAlexandr Virag above · Matyas Kolek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 · our read held Alexandr Virag at 57.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Alexandr Virag 9–4 Matyas Kolek Matyas Kolek has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 06:5957.0%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 3.0pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Virag
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Virag
Correct
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Virag 1402 vs Kolek 1373
Virag
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Virag 40% vs Kolek 60%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Virag 50% vs Kolek 70%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Virag -3 · Kolek +2
Virag
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% · Slight lean (leans Virag) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVirag 1.666 / Kolek 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Virag)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13233041
Virag1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite68% won 50 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it69% 27 of 39
Kolek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 41 of 87
Down 0–1, comes back24% 11 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVirag7wins
AwayKolek3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderVirag leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVirag75%3 of 4
AwayKolek33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Virag4Kolek6n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S2Virag5Kolek5n = 10split evenly
S3Virag6Kolek4n = 10Virag took 6 of 10
S4Virag9Kolek0n = 9Virag took 9 of 9
S5Virag1Kolek2n = 3Kolek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home660%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricViragKolekV − KBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.739.6+2.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricViragKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime145 / 297 vs 133 / 25748.8%51.8%145 / 297 vs 133 / 257Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
ViragVirag 1.67/Kolek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Virag · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Virag won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 3 · 07:00A. Virag481051111113M. Kolek4012114672
LSep 28 · 07:00A. Virag49114811152M. Kolek55711119173
WSep 8 · 11:30A. Virag4681116113M. Kolek361151461
WAug 22 · 09:30A. Virag3911113143M. Kolek365811121
LAug 22 · 08:30A. Virag229760M. Kolek331111113
LAug 12 · 13:30A. Virag4496111172M. Kolek51111199113
WAug 12 · 12:30A. Virag4111118113M. Kolek32481191
WJul 28 · 09:28A. Virag4211811123M. Kolek399119101
WJul 28 · 07:00A. Virag4181111113M. Kolek33117961
WJun 5 · 13:30A. Virag4591113123M. Kolek4111911101
A. Virag10
LOct 3 · 06:00R. Kvasnicka1.801111113A. Virag1.917880LSep 29 · 09:30P. Varecha1.251181211113A. Virag3.7581114992LSep 29 · 08:00P. Varecha1.301111113A. Virag3.405450WSep 29 · 07:00D. Mikula1.808950A. Virag1.911111113WSep 29 · 06:30A. Virag1.50612211133Z. Zientek2.501110119112WSep 28 · 09:00T. Kraninger1.5321191192A. Virag2.38119118113WSep 28 · 08:30A. Virag1.5011411113J. Stach2.50511491LSep 28 · 07:00A. Virag1.53114811152M. Kolek2.38711119173LSep 28 · 06:00T. Kraninger1.571111113A. Virag2.255340WSep 25 · 13:30A. Virag1.251111113V. Kocian3.757750
M. Kolek10
WOct 3 · 06:30M. Kolek1.801111113A. Schneeberger1.914950WOct 2 · 09:20M. Kolek1.4411117123P. Varecha2.639911101LOct 2 · 08:00P. Varecha1.671111143M. Kolek2.1055120LOct 2 · 07:00D. Mikula2.50119117113M. Kolek1.5091161172WOct 2 · 06:30M. Kolek1.83913711113Z. Zientek1.83111111982WSep 28 · 09:30J. Stach1.43119111072M. Kolek2.60511712113WSep 28 · 08:00T. Kraninger1.445511121M. Kolek2.6311116143WSep 28 · 07:00A. Virag1.53114811152M. Kolek2.38711119173LSep 28 · 06:30M. Kolek2.105780J. Stach1.671111113WSep 21 · 08:58M. Kolek1.4011116113P. Kalvar2.75871171
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