TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Varecha vs Matyas Kolek 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 2Finished
Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1151151412––––
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:58 and never touched: 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timePavel Varecha to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Varecha above · Matyas Kolek below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 14-12
Point 58 set 3, 14-12 · our read held Pavel Varecha at 55.4%
58 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Varecha 2–3 Matyas Kolek Pavel Varecha has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5855.4%Our read60.0%to break even at 1.666
short by 4.6pp60.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.666 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Varecha
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecha 1388 vs Kolek 1373
Varecha
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecha 60% vs Kolek 80%
Kolek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecha 80% vs Kolek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecha -2 · Kolek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% · Slight lean (leans Varecha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecha 1.666 / Kolek 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Varecha)-4.6pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13227991
Varecha1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 41 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it82% 27 of 33
Kolek2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog48% won 41 of 86
Down 0–1, comes back24% 11 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeVarecha2wins
AwayKolek3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderKolek leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarecha66.7%2 of 3
AwayKolekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecha3Kolek2n = 5Varecha took 3 of 5
S2Varecha2Kolek3n = 5Kolek took 3 of 5
S3Varecha2Kolek3n = 5Kolek took 3 of 5
S4Varecha3Kolek2n = 5Varecha took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricVarechaKolekV − KBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match41.240.4+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarechaKolekBasisWin rate · lifetime115 / 237 vs 131 / 25348.5%51.8%115 / 237 vs 131 / 253Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VarechaVarecha 1.67/Kolek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.4%
Varecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Varecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 17 · 08:58P. Varecha4312411163M. Kolek3910114141
LSep 17 · 08:30P. Varecha3911612101M. Kolek3921114123
LMay 25 · 06:00P. Varecha48911111162M. Kolek49119135113
LMay 22 · 09:28P. Varecha311111541M. Kolek4413911113
WMay 22 · 07:30P. Varecha45111211113M. Kolek31614741
P. Varecha10
LOct 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.501111113P. Varecha1.509990LOct 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.40281191D. Mikula2.7511117113WSep 30 · 13:30P. Varecha1.4891111113D. Kolek2.45117791WSep 30 · 12:00P. Varecha1.6711113143E. Sionkala2.108511121WSep 30 · 11:30D. Kolek2.25115981P. Varecha1.5741111113WSep 30 · 10:00P. Varecha2.10121110113J. Stach1.671081291WSep 29 · 09:30P. Varecha1.251181211113A. Virag3.7581114992WSep 29 · 08:00P. Varecha1.301111113A. Virag3.405450WSep 29 · 07:30Z. Zientek1.911312981P. Varecha1.80111411113WSep 29 · 06:00P. Varecha1.531111113D. Mikula2.385540
M. Kolek10
LOct 2 · 07:00D. Mikula2.50119117113M. Kolek1.5091161172WOct 2 · 06:30M. Kolek1.83913711113Z. Zientek1.83111111982WSep 28 · 09:30J. Stach1.43119111072M. Kolek2.60511712113WSep 28 · 08:00T. Kraninger1.445511121M. Kolek2.6311116143WSep 28 · 07:00A. Virag1.53114811152M. Kolek2.38711119173LSep 28 · 06:30M. Kolek2.105780J. Stach1.671111113WSep 21 · 08:58M. Kolek1.4011116113P. Kalvar2.75871171LSep 21 · 08:00M. Kolek1.737830J. Stach2.001111113WSep 21 · 07:30Z. Zientek1.831210613112M. Kolek1.8310121111133WSep 21 · 06:00M. Kolek1.80111111113P. Kalvar1.91431361
Upcoming Matches
P. Varecha
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M. Kolek
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