TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Pavel Varecha vs Alexandr Virag 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 7Finished
Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161513711611119
Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:53 and never touched: 73.8% is still 73.8%
Graded at full timePavel Varecha to win
73.8%
73.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Varecha above · Alexandr Virag below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 15-13
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 100 set 5, 11-9 · our read held Pavel Varecha at 73.8%
100 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Varecha 20–3 Alexandr Virag Alexandr Virag has won 3 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 07:5373.8%Our read80.0%to break even at 1.25
short by 6.2pp80.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.25 they are the same number)
What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Varecha
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
20-3 in 23
Varecha
Correct
gap of 17 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Varecha 1409 vs Virag 1416
Virag
Wrong
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Varecha 60% vs Virag 80%
Virag
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Varecha 70% vs Virag 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Varecha +2 · Virag -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% · Strong (leans Varecha) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Virag form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVarecha 1.25 / Virag 3.75
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Varecha)-6.2pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13254346
Varecha1.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 41 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it82% 27 of 33
Virag3.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog26% won 10 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 18
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVarecha10wins
AwayVirag0wins
2 of 10 to a deciderVarecha leads 10–0, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVarecha100%6 of 6
AwayVirag0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Varecha6Virag4n = 10Varecha took 6 of 10
S2Varecha7Virag3n = 10Varecha took 7 of 10
S3Varecha8Virag2n = 10Varecha took 8 of 10
S4Varecha7Virag0n = 7Varecha took 7 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVarechaViragVarecha − ViragBasisWins100+10in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.631.7+9.9per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVarechaViragBasisWin rate · lifetime118 / 241 vs 148 / 30149%49.2%118 / 241 vs 148 / 301Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
VarechaVarecha 1.25/Virag 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.8%
Varecha · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Varecha won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 29 · 09:30P. Varecha531181211113A. Virag5181114992
WSep 29 · 08:00P. Varecha331111113A. Virag145450
WSep 2 · 06:00P. Varecha341111123A. Virag2587100
WJun 19 · 08:58P. Varecha4181111113A. Virag31113891
WJun 19 · 08:30P. Varecha4111811113A. Virag29711651
WMay 25 · 09:30P. Varecha46671111113A. Virag4111117662
WMay 25 · 08:00P. Varecha4071111113A. Virag30111991
WMay 22 · 08:00P. Varecha4211119113A. Virag29831171
WMay 14 · 09:30P. Varecha421111203A. Virag3176180
WMay 14 · 06:30P. Varecha44111111113A. Virag36137881
P. Varecha10
WOct 7 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.00961191P. Varecha1.7311112113WOct 7 · 06:00P. Varecha1.531311113D. Mikula2.3811680LOct 2 · 09:20M. Kolek1.4411117123P. Varecha2.639911101WOct 2 · 08:00P. Varecha1.671111143M. Kolek2.1055120LOct 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.501111113P. Varecha1.509990LOct 2 · 06:00P. Varecha1.40281191D. Mikula2.7511117113WSep 30 · 13:30P. Varecha1.4891111113D. Kolek2.45117791WSep 30 · 12:00P. Varecha1.6711113143E. Sionkala2.108511121WSep 30 · 11:30D. Kolek2.25115981P. Varecha1.5741111113WSep 30 · 10:00P. Varecha2.10121110113J. Stach1.671081291
A. Virag10
LOct 7 · 07:00D. Mikula2.2012511113A. Virag1.611011781WOct 7 · 06:30A. Virag1.5011116113Z. Zientek2.50741161WOct 3 · 09:30R. Kvasnicka1.4396111142A. Virag2.60111187113WOct 3 · 08:30A. Virag1.3612211113A. Schneeberger3.001011781WOct 3 · 07:00A. Virag1.671051111113M. Kolek2.1012114672LOct 3 · 06:00R. Kvasnicka1.801111113A. Virag1.917880LSep 29 · 09:30P. Varecha1.251181211113A. Virag3.7581114992LSep 29 · 08:00P. Varecha1.301111113A. Virag3.405450WSep 29 · 07:00D. Mikula1.808950A. Virag1.911111113WSep 29 · 06:30A. Virag1.50612211133Z. Zientek2.501110119112
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