TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Stach vs Antonin Schneeberger 1-3 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511117411711––
Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:28 and never touched: 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeJiri Stach to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJiri Stach above · Antonin Schneeberger below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 67 set 4, 7-11 · our read held Jiri Stach at 63.3%
67 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Stach 3–1 Antonin Schneeberger Antonin Schneeberger has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Stach beat Schneeberger 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically. The market typically prices this in, which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:2863.3%Our read69.0%to break even at 1.45
short by 5.7pp69.0% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.45 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Stach
Wrong
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Stach
Wrong
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stach 1311 vs Schneeberger 1323
Schneeberger
Correct
both rated, 12 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stach 60% vs Schneeberger 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stach 40% vs Schneeberger 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stach +3 · Schneeberger +1
Stach
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% · Clear lean (leans Stach) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Schneeberger form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStach 1.45 / Schneeberger 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Stach)-5.7pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13248960
Stach1.45
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 37 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Schneeberger2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog25% won 28 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back11% 8 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back4% 2 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStach3wins
AwaySchneeberger1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderStach leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stach2Schneeberger2n = 4split evenly
S2Stach4Schneeberger0n = 4Stach took 4 of 4
S3Stach3Schneeberger1n = 4Stach took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStachSchneebergerStach − SchneebergerBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match36.233.2+3.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStachSchneebergerBasisWin rate · lifetime144 / 321 vs 134 / 29444.9%45.6%144 / 321 vs 134 / 294Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StachStach 1.45/Schneeberger 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.3%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Schneeberger won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LOct 5 · 13:30J. Stach27511471A. Schneeberger4011711113
WOct 5 · 11:30J. Stach52711149113A. Schneeberger45116121152
WSep 22 · 11:30J. Stach331111113A. Schneeberger269980
WAug 4 · 15:30J. Stach331111113A. Schneeberger226880
J. Stach10
WOct 5 · 12:00J. Stach1.61911115113Z. Zientek2.2011491182WOct 5 · 11:30A. Schneeberger3.00116121152J. Stach1.36711149113WOct 5 · 10:00J. Stach1.4471111113M. Levicky2.63118661LSep 30 · 13:10E. Sionkala1.83101111113J. Stach1.83126601LSep 30 · 12:30J. Stach1.6771211552D. Kolek2.101110811113LSep 30 · 11:00J. Stach2.381194141E. Sionkala1.5371111163LSep 30 · 10:00P. Varecha2.10121110113J. Stach1.671081291LSep 28 · 09:30J. Stach1.43119111072M. Kolek2.60511712113LSep 28 · 08:30A. Virag1.5011411113J. Stach2.50511491WSep 28 · 07:30J. Stach2.2011311113T. Kraninger1.61711991
A. Schneeberger10
WOct 5 · 12:30M. Levicky2.75118881A. Schneeberger1.4081111113LOct 5 · 11:30A. Schneeberger3.00116121152J. Stach1.36711149113WOct 5 · 10:30Z. Zientek2.10116421A. Schneeberger1.6761111113WOct 3 · 21:29D. Kolek1.83118917102A. Schneeberger1.838111115123LOct 3 · 20:30A. Schneeberger1.6196111262D. Kolek2.201111510113WOct 3 · 19:00A. Schneeberger1.501111113M. Levicky2.507870WOct 3 · 18:00Z. Zientek2.0011851162A. Schneeberger1.73811115113LOct 3 · 09:00M. Kolek1.36114311113A. Schneeberger3.0051111682LOct 3 · 08:30A. Virag1.3612211113A. Schneeberger3.001011781LOct 3 · 07:30A. Schneeberger2.63911111152R. Kvasnicka1.44111398113
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