TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Jiri Stach vs Zbynek Zientek 3-2 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga Pro
Played Oct 5Finished
Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911114119511118
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:47 and never touched: 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Stach to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Stach above · Zbynek Zientek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 90 set 5, 11-8 · our read held Jiri Stach at 58.9%
90 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Stach 6–3 Zbynek Zientek Zbynek Zientek has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:4758.9%Our read61.9%to break even at 1.615
short by 3.0pp61.9% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.615 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Stach
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Stach
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stach 1302 vs Zientek 1295
Stach
Correct
both rated, 7 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stach 20% vs Zientek 40%
Zientek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stach 30% vs Zientek 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stach +1 · Zientek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% · Slight lean (leans Stach) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stach form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStach 1.615 / Zientek 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Stach)-3.0pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13243757
Stach1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 37 of 66
Up 2–0, closes it100% 22 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it91% 29 of 32
Zientek2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: today
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 85 of 174
Down 0–1, comes back32% 30 of 94
Down 0–2, comes back20% 10 of 50
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeStach6wins
AwayZientek3wins
2 of 9 to a deciderStach leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStach83.3%5 of 6
AwayZientek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stach6Zientek3n = 9Stach took 6 of 9
S2Stach6Zientek3n = 9Stach took 6 of 9
S3Stach6Zientek3n = 9Stach took 6 of 9
S4Stach2Zientek1n = 3Stach took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home556%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricStachZientekS − ZBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match35.729.4+6.3per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStachZientekBasisWin rate · lifetime142 / 318 vs 203 / 42044.7%48.3%142 / 318 vs 203 / 420Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
StachStach 1.61/Zientek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Stach · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Stach won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 21 · 09:30J. Stach4010101191Z. Zientek4312128113
LSep 21 · 06:30J. Stach1910180Z. Zientek341211113
WJul 3 · 06:00J. Stach371411123Z. Zientek29127100
WJun 29 · 15:00J. Stach331111113Z. Zientek183960
WJun 19 · 09:30J. Stach331111113Z. Zientek188370
WJun 19 · 08:00J. Stach46611612113Z. Zientek42117111032
WFeb 12 · 09:58J. Stach331111113Z. Zientek219390
WFeb 12 · 09:30J. Stach331111113Z. Zientek152580
LJan 28 · 12:00J. Stach4711971192Z. Zientek45411118113
J. Stach10
LOct 5 · 13:30J. Stach1.45511471A. Schneeberger2.5011711113WOct 5 · 11:30A. Schneeberger3.00116121152J. Stach1.36711149113WOct 5 · 10:00J. Stach1.4471111113M. Levicky2.63118661LSep 30 · 13:10E. Sionkala1.83101111113J. Stach1.83126601LSep 30 · 12:30J. Stach1.6771211552D. Kolek2.101110811113LSep 30 · 11:00J. Stach2.381194141E. Sionkala1.5371111163LSep 30 · 10:00P. Varecha2.10121110113J. Stach1.671081291LSep 28 · 09:30J. Stach1.43119111072M. Kolek2.60511712113LSep 28 · 08:30A. Virag1.5011411113J. Stach2.50511491WSep 28 · 07:30J. Stach2.2011311113T. Kraninger1.61711991
Z. Zientek10
WOct 5 · 13:11Z. Zientek1.50913811113M. Levicky2.50111111782WOct 5 · 11:00M. Levicky2.25112891Z. Zientek1.57111011113LOct 5 · 10:30Z. Zientek2.10116421A. Schneeberger1.6761111113WOct 3 · 20:59M. Levicky2.20119761Z. Zientek1.6141111113LOct 3 · 20:00Z. Zientek1.53111411362M. Levicky2.38816611113LOct 3 · 19:30D. Kolek1.731111113Z. Zientek2.007980LOct 3 · 18:00Z. Zientek2.0011851162A. Schneeberger1.73811115113WOct 2 · 09:30D. Mikula1.539311111Z. Zientek2.3811118133LOct 2 · 08:30D. Mikula1.53116114113Z. Zientek2.3871191172WOct 2 · 07:30Z. Zientek2.501111113P. Varecha1.509990
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