TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Miroslav Kowolowski vs Alexandr Virag 3-0 · Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProA16 · Havlickuv Brod
Played Oct 10Finished
Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181171210––––
Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 05:58 and never touched: 67.5% is still 67.5%
Graded at full timeMiroslav Kowolowski to win
67.5%
67.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct, not a call that won.
How it is goingMiroslav Kowolowski above · Alexandr Virag below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 12-10
Point 59 set 3, 12-10 · our read held Miroslav Kowolowski at 67.5%
59 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Kowolowski 13–4 Alexandr Virag Alexandr Virag has won 4 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 05:5867.5%Our read71.4%to break even at 1.40
short by 3.9pp71.4% (what it has to beat, and what the price implies: at 1.40 they are the same number)
What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Kowolowski
Correct
no bar to clear: a priced side always votes
H2H
13-4 in 17
Kowolowski
Correct
gap of 9 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kowolowski 1438 vs Virag 1383
Kowolowski
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart, no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kowolowski 0% vs Virag 40%
Virag
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kowolowski 20% vs Virag 40%
Virag
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kowolowski -5 · Virag -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing: the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue: the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent, and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% · Clear lean (leans Kowolowski) · sealed before the serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kowolowski form (0%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKowolowski 1.40 / Virag 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 33%
Edge (Kowolowski)-3.9pp (anti-value)
Czech Liga Pro · #13268393
Kowolowski1.40
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 06)
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite55% won 85 of 155
Up 2–0, closes it91% 32 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it69% 59 of 86
Virag2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Last match: 3 days ago (Oct 07)
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog25% won 10 of 40
Down 0–1, comes back11% 2 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKowolowski9wins
AwayVirag1wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKowolowski leads 9–1, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKowolowski100%5 of 5
AwayVirag20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n: a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kowolowski5Virag5n = 10split evenly
S2Kowolowski8Virag2n = 10Kowolowski took 8 of 10
S3Kowolowski9Virag1n = 10Kowolowski took 9 of 10
S4Kowolowski4Virag3n = 7Kowolowski took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it, below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10. A scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKowolowskiViragK − VBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.632.1+7.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKowolowskiViragBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 315 vs 148 / 30454.6%48.7%172 / 315 vs 148 / 304Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did: no prediction
Match Winner
KowolowskiKowolowski 1.40/Virag 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.5%
Kowolowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kowolowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WOct 10 · 06:00M. Kowolowski341111123A. Virag2587100
WJun 26 · 11:00M. Kowolowski49811118113A. Virag4311861172
WJun 19 · 07:00M. Kowolowski331111113A. Virag206770
WJun 16 · 10:00M. Kowolowski4011711113A. Virag32611691
WJun 2 · 11:30M. Kowolowski4291111113A. Virag30116941
WMay 7 · 07:30M. Kowolowski3811115113A. Virag32871161
WMay 5 · 08:58M. Kowolowski351311113A. Virag2211470
WMay 5 · 07:30M. Kowolowski48612118113A. Virag46111051192
WApr 21 · 13:30M. Kowolowski3961111113A. Virag31119471
LApr 21 · 12:30M. Kowolowski389111171A. Virag4011135113
M. Kowolowski10
LOct 6 · 20:58I. Taichman2.001114113M. Kowolowski1.7351240LOct 6 · 20:00M. Kowolowski1.6118771162R. Guliak2.201611118113LOct 6 · 19:30M. Jasek2.381111113M. Kowolowski1.535680LOct 6 · 18:00M. Kowolowski1.539460I. Taichman2.381111113LOct 5 · 08:58R. Adam1.61911411113M. Kowolowski2.2011811682WOct 5 · 08:30R. Adam1.50111110582M. Kowolowski2.50471211113LOct 5 · 07:30M. Kowolowski1.57168551M. Blejchar2.25141111113LOct 5 · 06:30E. Gebek1.671412113M. Kowolowski2.10121090WOct 3 · 17:30R. Adam1.2811751192M. Kowolowski3.50711112113LOct 3 · 16:00R. Adam1.331111113M. Kowolowski3.259850
A. Virag10
LOct 7 · 09:30P. Varecha1.305111111113A. Virag3.1511781382LOct 7 · 08:00P. Varecha1.25111576113A. Virag3.75613111192LOct 7 · 07:00D. Mikula2.2012511113A. Virag1.611011781WOct 7 · 06:30A. Virag1.5011116113Z. Zientek2.50741161WOct 3 · 09:30R. Kvasnicka1.4396111142A. Virag2.60111187113WOct 3 · 08:30A. Virag1.3612211113A. Schneeberger3.001011781WOct 3 · 07:00A. Virag1.671051111113M. Kolek2.1012114672LOct 3 · 06:00R. Kvasnicka1.801111113A. Virag1.917880LSep 29 · 09:30P. Varecha1.251181211113A. Virag3.7581114992LSep 29 · 08:00P. Varecha1.301111113A. Virag3.405450
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